You forgot They (WE) also had to overcome the built in voter fraud. But their big mistake was believing their own polls, so they missed the proper factoring of the logarithms in the machines.
They never saw the unexpected turn-out of the voters that were silent no longer.
The 2016 election had the stamp of answered prayer all over it.
You are correct that turn-out was the key and the Democrats and media did not see it coming. If we can't repeat that trick in 2018 and 2020 we will pay the price