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To: Kaslin

There is a "reality TV" and there is a reality.

Reality TV: The U.S. side in recent days advanced ideas that China agrteed to some $200B in deficit reductions. Now the U.S. side says that China agreed to "substantial reductions in trade gap" — in other words, it means whatever you want it to mean. "Details" to be worked out "later" or as they say "we don't need any stinking details" — take it as a "win"

Reality: Chinese strenuously denied that they agreed to specific targets nor could they, really. Outside of military, national security and specific G2G / government-to-government "strategic deals" (like energy. minerals or water), the countries don't really buy much from other countries — the "trade deficits" (i.e., current account deficits) are mostly private transactions between private businesses and are dicated by basic supply and demand — simple capitalistic formula, known well before Adam Smith described it in "The Wealth of Nations".

So here is the Chinese version of the "deal": China Will 'Significantly' Boost U.S. Purchases. By How Much is the Question :

To translate, that's the diplo-speak for the fact that nothing has changed from before the "trade wars are good and easy to win" entered the picture. e.g., see In a landmark for Trump, South Korea agrees to open its auto market - FR, post #11, 2018 March 26.

Chinese (and other governments' politicos) are pretty good at the "Art of the deal" and the "Art of the 'Talk'" and the "Art of bamboozle." Trump administration gets to save face because everybody understood that slapping tariffs on China would lead to retaliation (see for example soybeans and "sorghum trade" that went to other countries after several ships from the U.S. were turned around in April when China abruptly cancelled the order and arranged to buy the same from Russia, and short time later agreed to buying more of Russian oil and gas / energy at the expense of the U.S. trade).

So the drama is over and everybody can claim a "win" — yaay!

Refs:

Report: Ships carrying US sorghum stuck at sea after China imposes tariffs - TheHill, by John Bowden, 2018 April 20

Trump asks China to slash trade deficit $200B by 2020 - TheHill, by John Bowden, 2018 May 04

Trump's Tariff Hammer Won't Hit China's IP Nail - Bloomberg, by Tim Culpan, 2018 March 22

ZTE Folly May Spur Chinese Chip Push - Bloomberg, by Tim Culpan, 2018 April 17

7 posted on 05/20/2018 11:32:00 AM PDT by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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To: CutePuppy; Kaslin
More useful references re "trade deficits" / current account balance and the real drivers of the economy and budget deficits:

* Trump's confrontational trade stance is just boomeranging back to imperil U.S. | Tension is just reinforcing macro flows that lead to wider U.S. trade deficit - MW, by Gregg Robb, 2018 May 19

** The U.S. is almost guaranteed to have large trade deficits year after year | A low savings rate makes shrinking the trade gap much harder - MW, by Rex Nutting, 2018 March 12

Meanwhile...

*** Merkel to Seek China as Free-Trade Ally on Beijing Trip - BL, by Sarah Syed, 2018 May 19


9 posted on 05/20/2018 5:32:39 PM PDT by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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