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Maher is the idiot.

That may be true, but not here.

Let's look at the data:

The statistical reality is that in modern times, if a recession occurs during or pretty close to a Presidential election year, the standing President OR the Party holding the Presidency always loses that election:

August 1929-March 1933: FDR comes to power
January 1980-July 1980: Reagan is elected
July 1990-March 1991: Clinton is elected (yea, yea, I know....the recession was technically over by election day but if memory serves me correctly, the NBER didn't call the end recession until AFTER the election; indeed, they announced that we were IN a recession around March 1991)
December 2007-June 2009: Obama is elected

In contrast, if the economy is doing well, standing Presidents always win re-election.

Truman won in 1948 (note that recession started during the month of the election, and Truman almost lost)
Ike was re-elected in 1956
Nixon was re-elected in 1972
Reagan was re-elected in 1984
Clinton was re-elected in 1996
Obama was re-elected in 2012

We can say what we want about Maher, but the reality is that "It's the economy, stupid!" is a pretty solid political truth. And, judging by how Trump is flying now, and notwithstanding a flurry of other things that could throw things into a ditch, wishing for a recession is about the best thing statists can do to hope Trump loses in 2020.

And liberals told the low info voters that Clinton fixed the recession, even though it was basically over before he took office. On the other hand, Clinton was in office when the tech bust started, causing the recession that was reported to begin right after Bush took office. But the liberals blamed Bush for it and the low info voters believed it.

Except the economy was NOT doing well in 2012. The one guy, Litchman, whose “foolproof” predictor failed in 2012, was largely based on this.

Moreover, no economy has seen Trump-—someone willing to buck all trends FOR the US. Even Coolidge and Reagan agreed to legislation that hurt the US economy.