China's Next War: China and Vietnam look to be on the verge of war

Despite being two of the world’s three remaining communist states, China and Vietnam look to be on the verge of war. Vietnam is an obstacle to China’s ambitions for East Asian hegemony.

One of truisms from popular culture is that one should never get involved in a land war in Asia. The mistake of getting involved in a land war in Asia is hard to avoid if one of your neighbouring countries is set upon attacking you, which is Vietnam’s fate. If China is going to attack Vietnam, there would be satellite evidence of Chinese preparations, and so there is. Following is a satellite photo of 36 acres of new, red-roofed buildings at army base in China 10 km north of the border at 24° 24’ 40’’ N, 106° 42’ 26’’:

It is across the road from an existing army base, which can be identified as a military base by the running track. Most large Chinese military bases have a running track. One thing that is different about these new buildings is that they have red roofs in a region that is mostly blue roofs, suggesting the materials ordering decision was made far to the north in Beijing. Another thing different about these buildings is that they are hard to access with small gaps between them. Which suggests they are for storage for things that won’t be accessed often, such as archives, or accessed only once – for hiding tanks, artillery, armored personnel carriers prior to an attack into Vietnam.

The last time China invaded Vietnam was from the predawn hours of February 17 to March 16, 1979. In line with the flexibility of Chinese strategic theory, this was called a “Self-Defensive Counterattack Against Vietnam

China will not likely move to conquer Việt Nam. China wants some territory on the border and wants to intimidate Việt Nam to remove itself from those islands in the Biển Dông- East Sea. Should VN do that then China will effectively control all the Biển Đông up to the beaches of the surrounding countries except for the Phillipines, temporarily, which is not regarded as any sort of barrier. If China successfully evicts the Vietnamese from the islands then China will simply swat the Phillipine force off the Phillipine islands that China Wants then China will own all that sea surface up to the beaches of Luzon.

Then Việt Nam cannot use the sea lanes without China's permission and limits on trade and contact with other countries. Okinawa comes to be a point of contention for the next grab.

China may also attack Việt Nam to test Ông Sam-USA. If we allow it to happen without striking back very quickly, China will move to hegemonize the lands bordering he water of the Biển Đông.

If it is going to happen I find myself hoping it will be during the time I am next in country. That does not seem rational, I suppose, but it's pretty strong. Next trip will be on a long visa.

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