Posted on 06/26/2018 3:04:01 PM PDT by grayboots
Democratic Senate candidates are leading in three key battleground states as the party looks to defend a difficult map ahead of the November midterm elections, according to new polls.
Arizona Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) are both leading their GOP challengers by double digits, while Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D) is up by just 4 points, about the margin of error in the new NBC News/Marist polls released Tuesday evening.
The results show how some of the major Senate races this cycle are shaping up with less than five months until Election Day.
In Arizona, Sinema has mounted a strong candidacy that's unified the party as several Republican candidates continue to battle ahead of their primary Aug. 28.
Brown continues to hold a significant lead in Ohio as Rep. Jim Renacci (R) has struggled to close the gap after winning his own primary in early May.
And the Florida battle between Nelson and the state's deep-pocketed Republican Gov. Rick Scott is expected to be one of the premier races in the country – as well as one of the costliest.
As the presumptive Democratic nominee, Sinema leads Rep. Martha McSally (R), the frontrunner in the Arizona GOP primary, by 11 points in the new poll. Former state Sen. Kelli Ward trails Sinema by 10 points, while former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is behind the Democrat by 25 points.
McSally leads the crowded primary field with 30 points to Ward's 28 points, with Arpaio sitting in third with 21 percent of the support.
Democrats are bullish on flipping the Arizona seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R)—Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton only lost the state by 4 points in 2016 and the party believes a combination of strong turnout and lengthy GOP primary will help them in the fall.
Republicans have sought to counter that enthusiasm by arguing that the race will narrow once the party coalesces around a candidate, pointing to the deep-red history in the state.
In Ohio, the NBC poll shows Brown leading Renacci by 13 points in a state where Republicans came into the cycle confident they could knock off the longtime incumbent.
So far, public polling shows Brown leading by double-digits, and while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ohio) recently told The Hill he's more confident about his party's chances in the state, he also left the state off his list of top targets during an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Nelson's 4-point lead in Florida, 49 percent to 45 percent, is good news for a campaign that's seen the race tighten since Scott officially launched his bid in April.
Scott has shown a willingness to spend his vast personal wealth on his political bids, only adding to the likelihood that the race will become one of the most expensive on the Senate map this year.
Democrats have taken aim at Scott's at times polarizing tenure leading the state, as well as his friendliness to President Trump. But Republicans see Nelson as beatable and have begun to rough him up in the weeks after Scott announced his bid.
The Arizona poll reached 839 registered voters between June 17-21 with an overall margin of error of 4.5 percent and a margin of error of 6.7 percent for the 371 Republican primary voters polled.
The Florida survey of 947 registered voters contacted during the same period has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
In Ohio, the poll surveyed 778 registered voters between June 17-22 with a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
And Hillary has a 98% chance of winning!
“The Arizona poll reached 839 registered voters between June 17-21 with an overall margin of error of 4.5 percent and a margin of error of 6.7 percent for the 371 Republican primary voters polled.” With an error of 5 percent you throw the poll out. Marist is generally worthless.
Registered voters. I guess the Democrats are planning on voting on behalf of the ones who don’t show up.
President Trump needs to add a few more rallies to his list.
Hillary will win by a landslide!
270 is impossible for Trump
Hillary is president elect, we just have to finalize it on election day!
Polls are crap, they drive public opinion not measure it
Nelson leading by 4 in FL?
No way. Not a credible poll.
It’s still early.
In fact, until the states wise up and repeal 17A, as evidenced by concerns about the integrity of the outcome of Alabama's and Pennsylvania's special elections, patriot candidates need to win elections by a large enough margin to compensate for the following concerns.
Keep Democrats from impeaching Trump.
Democratic Rep. Al Green says he will force House impeachment vote
Young, misguided, newly registered pro-gun control voters who are likely clueless about the fed's constitutionally limited powers.
Possible deep state ballot box fraud and associated MSM scare tactics.
Interference from people like Soros.
The 16th Amendment needs to disappear too.
I think they missed the mark a wee bit. Anybody recall? The media sure doesn't. LOL
Here all they are doing is trying to build momentum, as if the Democrats were in the catbird's seat.
Here's how bad it is for the Democrats.
The 2018 Senate election takes place on November 6, 2018. There are 35 seats up in 2018*, of which 26 are held by Democrats. LINK
We have nine exposed seats. They have twenty-six.
If I said bad luck with on November 6th, would it be ungentlemanly?
I don't really care, but I thought I'd toss that out there.
When we get closer to Nov. 6 then lets what the polls show.
Lots of time before many voters begin to get involved.
I haven’t seen a poll were Bill Nelson was up by 4 points.
Matter of fact, the polls I’ve seen it’s neck and neck.
Oh, and I live here.
5.56mm
Among other errors, the writer claims McConnell and Flakes are republicans. From Ohio.
“Sinema leads Rep. Martha McSally (R), the frontrunner in the Arizona GOP primary, by 11 points in the new poll. “
Meadow muffins.
5.56mm
Why is Sheriff Joe still in this? With respect, Sir...GTFO!
I would issue a caution about Sinema. She has been running ads for weeks, using her Marine Vet brother to pretend she cares about the Military. The Republicans have no ads against her and won’t have a candidate until August. I seriously doubt that Ward is ahead of McSally, in the Republican stakes. But isn’t Marist a Leftist Org? Wouldn’t they want to portray the weaker Republican as being more difficult to beat?
LMAO
NBC/Schmucky Todd is the only poll that has Nelson in the lead.
Arizona’s race smacks of Alabama.
Just imagine how different things would be if Arpaio would come to his senses and throw his support to Ward, in order to spare us another RINO in McSally. It could be 49 to 30.
In Florida, Rick Scott’s conservative bona fides has taken a blow after his handling of the Parkland shooting, IMO.
And, I wish Jim Jordan had run against Brown in Ohio.
We have to hold onto the Senate for Judicial confirmation purposes, especially after today’s critical decision to uphold President Trump’s travel ban. President Trump absolutely must retain the leverage to fill any SCOTUS vacancy and continue to strengthen the lower court benches throughout the country.
Georgia could go to the left.
The pubs have pissed in their pot for so many years that people are tired of the stench.
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