Of the five on the (reported) short list, Judge Barrett is my favorite for one simple reason.
Brett Kavanaugh, 53; Amul Thapar, 49; Amy Coney Barrett, 46; Thomas Hardiman, 52; Raymond Kethledge, 51. She is three or more years younger than the others, and women tend to live longer than men. Assuming all five are equally qualified, and in particular that they have demonstrated a sustained philosophical support for originalism, she’s likely to have two more presidential terms on the bench in which to protect the rule of law than any of the others.
RBG is 85, and Breyer is 79. That very likely means at least two more nominees for President Trump, more if he gets to replace an originalist with a younger originalist. Imagine SCOTUS in the 2024 election with 6 of 9 younger Justices appointed by President Trump, plus the squish, Roberts, plus Kagan, plus the Wise Latina (or not, if she fails to keep her diabetes under control). America’s enemies will be two or more decades from regaining any influence in that venue.
Trump may get as many as three picks. Clarence Thomas has indicated he’d like to retire, and wants a Republican President to choose his replacement. So, potentially, we could get any combination of Judge Barrett, Judge Kavanaugh, Judge Willet and the others on the high court—for decades to come.
Equally impressive: how Trump has been restocking the federal district and appellate courts with conservatives. The federal judiciary will look vastly different when he leaves office and that legacy will outlive him by many years.
Reclaiming the judiciary is a critical step, and so far, Trump is handling it masterfully.
I like Barrett, my only misgiving is that it seems to be easier to sway women judges with emotional pitches than men, a la Sandra Day O’Connor, who looked as good going in as Barrett does. But then again, we have seen people like Warren Burger, Blackmun, Stephens, Kennedy, enjoy the praise from the NY Times by turning more liberal once on the court, so you never know. All you can do is look at their background and try to figure out if they are the kind that will wilt from the pressure of a case that the left is pushing all the hot buttons on, like gay marriage, or abortion or gun rights. And then it’s a crap shoot.
Looks nice on paper, not so nice in reality.