10 SENATE DEMS up for re-election in NOV in states Trump won...
Needing help
OH (Trump won by 8): Sherrod Brown, seeking his 3rd term in Ohio (GOP candidate is Jim Renacci, current polling at 51-38 for Brown)
WI (Trump won by 0.8%): Tammy Baldwin (AUG 14 Primary, Vukmir likely GOP candidate but polls behind 49-40)
PA (Trump won by 0.7%): Bob Casey (Lou Barletta is considered a weak challenger, 47-32 is current poll)
MICH (Trump won by 0.2%): Debbie Stabenow, 40 yrs in MI politics (AUG 7 Primary, Stabenow polling 51-30 over both likely opponents)
Danger for DEMS
FL (Trump won by 1): Bill Nelson-D (AUG 24 Primary, current polling has Nelson behind Rick Scott 46-41)
IN (Trump by 19): Joe Donnelly-D already polling behind 48-47 to Mike Braun
MO (Trump by 18): Claire McCaskill-D up, but only 48-44 over Josh Hawley
MT (Trump by 21): Jon Tester-D up 52-44 over Matt Rosendale, but Trump visiting tomorrow
ND (Trump by 36): Heidi Heitkamp-D down 48-44 to Kevin Kramer
WV (Trump by 42): Joe Manchin-D was polling behind Patrick Morrissey (44-46 on MAY 10), but now up 50-43 (JUN 19)
That's a +3, with 3 more in the air, but...
The 4 current GOP seats in danger:
ARIZ (Trump won by 4): AUG 28 Primary to replace Jeff Flake (RINO)... Krysten Sinema-D polling ahead of Martha McSally-R early, 39-32, with 20+% undecided.
NEV (Trump lost by 2): Jacky Rosen-D up 45-41 early over incumbent Dean Heller-R
MISS (Trump won by 18): Special Election Jungle Primary to replace retired Thad Cochran... leader is current appointee Cindy Hyde-Smith-R over Mike Espy-D and Chris McDaniel-R, 30-22-17. There is a likely runoff if nobody gets 50%. She is polling ahead of Espy 46-34, head to head.
TENN (Trump won by 26): Corker (RINO) retiring, Primary AUG 2, but the most recent poll had Phil Bredesen-D over Marsha Blackburn-R, 46-43 on MAY 1.
So it's about a +2 in the Senate at the moment.
The other 20 races are pretty much already decided. 13 DEM (WA, CA MINNx2, VA, CT, RI, MASS, NJ, NY, MD, DEL, HI) and 5 GOP (MISS, TX, UT, NEB, WY) and 2 IND (Maine and VT)
We shall see........
Thanks for the chart. Is there a specific reason why you consider the special Senate election to replace Franken “pretty much already decided”? We don’t even know who the candidates are for sure yet (the primary’s in Aug.). I’ve heard from those on the ground that Housley is popular there and might have a shot at taking the seat for the GOP if she’s the nominee. After all, Trump came close to winning the state.