All good points. Add to them:
1. Can’t find enough truck drivers, goods are moving and probably more need to be moved.
2. Railroads are offering bounties for engineers and other labor, freight is moving
3. I read the other day, in support of your note on shipping, that shipping concerns are not the least bit concerned.
Trump has said he is planning to level the playing field to allow even competition by combatting punitive tariffs on our goods. A benefit of that may be that we make more things at home because it makes sense to do so. He never said he is ending trade when it makes sense. Things may cost more or some may make lower profits but choice should not be impacted by tariffs that are either protective or punitive as they are now and that includes our own.
This may take some time though. One does not become fat over night nor does one shed pounds to correct the wrong quickly. Shock therapy seldom works or has lasting impact.
The market reaction to this, in spite of the various conditions in their sine waves, as General Blather points out, concerns me though. I know the market hates uncertainty but it is over reacting to the purported trade war and under reacting to the growing economy. I am also starting to be concerned about inflation.
I still do not believe that Trump is a Smoot Hawley type disaster.
Last week, I read of a 72-year old guy....marginal amount of real income via social security, and some relative was willing to sponsor him for the truck-drivers course, and he’s got a company lined up for the job as soon as he finishes. He hadn’t worked in seven years. Don’t know his salary but you have to figure at least $40k a year for long-haul work. Even if he just works another five years....he’ll build onto social security, and have some kind of 401k deal on the side if he’s smart.
For any dad who has some idiot son in the house and still not working at age 24....dad needs to drag that kid out and force him into the Trump-world. There’s jobs everywhere you look. There’s been nothing like this since the 1950s.