This time is very different from last time. A Republican Senate seat was lost in Alabama and McConnell has done NOTHING to rein in Senators who hate Trump. We have no reason to expect that McCain, Flake, Murkowski, and Collins won't continue their backstabbing ways. Others who might be tempted to vote against the choice haven't been given a real good reason not to do so.
There are not more than a half dozen or so "Republican" US Senators who don't hate their base.