According to Rush there are 10 Democrat Senators who are in “red states” and will be considering their futures when they vote for the new Justice.
Those ten are:
IN, ND, WV, MO, MT - Trump won each by 19% or more
OH, FL, WI, PA, MI - Trump won OH by 8, and the rest by 1% or less.
The 3 states in bold have the likely GOP challenger ahead in recent polls... but more than half haven't had their Primaries yet. We should be working hard to get at least 5-6 of these stolen in NOV.
On the other side, NEV (Trump was -2), MISS (T +18), TENN (+26), and ARIZ (T +4) all have GOP Senate seats in danger, according to recent polls.
TENN would be a shocker to lose (D leads 46-43 in most recent poll to replace retired RINO Corker).
Ted Cruz in TEX is recently up "only" 10, and is the only other seat that is near single-digits.
The final 20 races are pretty much already decided. 13 DEM (WA, CA MINNx2, VA, CT, RI, MASS, NJ, NY, MD, DEL, HI) and 5 GOP (MISS#2, TX, UT, NEB, WY) and 2 INDEP (Maine and VT)
As of today, it would still be a +1 for the GOP, but the "margin of error" (anything under 4 pct lead) is about 4-5 seats.
Losing all 4 contests in MT, WV, MO, and TENN (where Trump won by an average of 27 pts, but the R is still polling behind as of today), would be startling. Shocking. CNN would have fainting spells. Winning all 4 could help put the Senate around 56-42-2.
GOP wins in TENN and ARIZ would also replace 2 retiring RINOs (Corker and Flake) with more reliable votes, making a stronger lead, even if it is only 53-47. (McCain, Graham, Collins etc all still lurk in the shadows.)