Danger for DEMS
FL (Trump won by 1): Bill Nelson-D (AUG 24 Primary, current polling has Nelson behind Rick Scott 46-41)
IN (Trump by 19): Joe Donnelly-D already polling behind 48-47 to Mike Braun
ND (Trump by 36): Heidi Heitkamp-D down 48-44 to Kevin Kramer-R
SHOULD be danger for Dems, but somehow, unconscionably, isn't a GOP lead yet.
WV (Trump won by 42): Joe Manchin-D was polling behind Patrick Morrissey (44-46 on MAY 10), but now up 50-43 (JUN 19)
MO (Trump by 18): Claire McCaskill-D up, but only 48-44 over Josh Hawley
MT (Trump by 21): Jon Tester-D up 52-44 over Matt Rosendale in May, but Trump visited recently
That's +3, but more could be in play, with a huge effort form the RNC (yeah, right)...
OH (Trump won by 8): Sherrod Brown, seeking his 3rd term in Ohio (GOP candidate is Jim Renacci, current polling at 51-38 for Brown)
WI (Trump won by 0.8%): Tammy Baldwin (AUG 14 Primary, Vukmir likely GOP candidate but polls behind 49-40)
PA (Trump won by 0.7%): Bob Casey (Lou Barletta is a weak challenger, 47-32 is the most recent poll)
MICH (Trump won by 0.2%): Debbie Stabenow, 40 yrs in MI politics (AUG 7 Primary, Stabenow polling 51-30 over both likely opponents)
Still, +3 would be nice... But... NEV, TENN, and ARIZ are currently potential DEM pickups:
There's 4 current GOP seats in danger:
NEV (Trump lost by 2): Jacky Rosen-D up 45-41 early over incumbent Dean Heller-R
ARIZ (Trump won by 4): AUG 28 Primary to replace Jeff Flake (RINO)... Krysten Sinema-D polling ahead of Martha McSally-RINO early, 39-32, with 20+% undecided.
TENN (Trump won by 26): Corker (RINO) retiring, Primary AUG 2, Phil Bredesen-D polled over Marsha Blackburn-R, 46-43 on MAY 1.
MISS (Trump won by 18): Special Election Jungle Primary to replace retired RINO Thad Cochran... leader is current appointee Cindy Hyde-Smith-R over Mike Espy-D and Chris McDaniel-R, 30-22-17. There is a likely runoff if nobody gets 50%. She is polling ahead of Espy 46-34, head to head.
The other 20 races are pretty much already decided (>10% spread in poling). 13 DEM (WA, CA MINNx2, VA, CT, RI, MASS, NJ, NY, MD, DEL, HI) and 5 GOP (MISS#2, TX, UT, NEB, WY) and 2 IND (Maine and VT)
Several August Primaries coming up.
We gain at least 5 senate seats this fall.
Bank on it.
Thanks for the information.
But remember in July of 2016 all the polls had Hillary Clinton winning by double digits.
I think the public polls are deliberately biased. Their purpose is to influence public opinion not honestly report public opinion.