Manufacturing employment peaked in the U.S. in 1979. Think about what that means:
1. It declined even during the longest post-WW2 economic boom in U.S. history.
2. It peaked at a time that nobody could credibly claim was the heyday of U.S. economic power.
At the same time we are seeing 20% of U.S. families with no nobody employed (I'm still not sure if that is "families" or "households," though the distinction might be irrelevant), we're also seeing employers all over this country complaining that they can't fill their open positions. This means one of three things is at work here: (A) the chronically unemployed don't have the skills to work these jobs (and by "skills" I mean even something as simple as showing up to work on time for a job that requires no skilled labor); (B) the chronically unemployed don't have any interest in working; or (C) the jobs simply aren't located where the unemployed people live.
I'd say (A) and (B) are major indicators of a social breakdown, while (C) reflects a cultural issue for people tied to an unrealistic (in the modern world) expectation that nobody should ever have to relocate to where the opportunities are better.
A couple of other possibilities:
D) The employer has a position spec’d for a $35/hr. worker but is only willing to pay $16/hr.
E) The employer’s expectations are totally unrealistic (i.e. someone with ten years of experience, but under age 35, with a perfect resume match of all desired skills who will require zero investment in training).
2. It peaked at a time that nobody could credibly claim was the heyday of U.S. economic power.
Between the end of WWII and 1979, the US government took several actions that caused many manufacturing jobs to move elsewhere. The electronics industry that was booming in the US after WWII until around the mid '70s moved a huge amount of its production to Japan due to government action aimed at rebuilding Japan as a Cold War ally.
In the 1960s, Mexico set up its Maquiladora zone in northern Mexico aimed at attracting US factories and jobs with cheap labor and lax regulation. It worked, many plants were moved there well before NAFTA.
The US adopted many other favorable policies post-WWII to help rebuild Europe and other nations, actions that opened the US to cheaper goods and caused many US plants to be moved overseas, starting in the 1950s and '60.
we're also seeing employers all over this country complaining that they can't fill their open positions.
True, but that is a very recent development brought about by Trump's tax cuts, reduced regulation and his America First approach to trade.
Few still pretend that NAFTA did not cause a large number of US factories and jobs to relocate to Mexico, as well as attracting foreign plants which produce mostly for the US market. Reducing the tariffs were just an invitation for US plants to move to Mexico and export to the US.
There still are many manufacturing jobs that those with few skills can perform. It’s a pity so many jobs have been lost, particularly in textiles, apparel and light manufacturing.
And there are some people who would be difficult to turn into good employees, but I think our government’s policy should be to create incentives to hire Americans and not to allow more and more foreign workers in. There should be a nationwide program to move as many able bodied US citizens who aren’t working into productive jobs as possible.
Our $20 trillion in debt and near 20% real unemployment are realities we can’t ignore forever, and now we have a chance to make some progress toward reducing those.
All I know is my personal economy declined severely after the effects of NAFTA went full-blown and China got full admission into GATT in the late 1990s.
Many others made the same empirical observation.
I went digging (hours and hours worth of scholarly research) and found plenty of correlation in the FRED archives between US household wealth (in real terms, gold-indexed) and when the US cuts import tariffs. There is a definitive (coincidence = impossible) negative correlation between cutting tariffs and US household prosperity.
I’d dig it all back up for you, but I don’t have time for that anymore. You’re just going to have to take my word for it.
Now we have Trump and things are looking up in “flyover country” for the first time in decades. It had absolutely nothing to do with societal factors. Pure macroeconomics (government shenanigans) at play.
It’s no mistake we now have the lowest unemployment numbers in decades.