Somehow Manchin is polling well in West Virginia. I trust the people of West Virginia do the right thing and vote him out, regardless of how he is trying to use the Supreme Court pick to get votes.
JoMa
Kavanaugh is a shoo-in. Why? Because the democrat choice in the immediate future is vote down Kavanaugh/lose ground in the Senate, or confirm Kavanaugh and keep the Senate close (no way they re-take it this round).
But the long term dictates which choice they make: If the vote down Kavanaugh, the GOP gains a lock-tight majority. Which means Trump’s next choice can be ANYONE he wants, the democrats can’t stop it.
So they have to let Kavanaugh go this time. Manchin, Donnelly and a few others will be permitted the Potemkin Village “moderate bipartisan” vote in hopes of keeping their seats.
JoMa
Joe Manchin's retail political skill shouldn't be underestimated. Around election time he can pull the "good ole country boy" act really well, complete with flannel shirts, hunting rifle and pickup truck. It doesn't help that his opponent is a New Jersey native so in his TV ads he's been really pushing the "he's not one of us" "carpetbagger" card. He could lose, but it really wouldn't shock me if he won either. There are a lot of otherwise conservative voters that eat his phony bologna act up.