Once it becomes clear that the Rep has the 50 votes, all the Red State Democrats who are running for reelection will vote in favor, because why stick your neck out for a symbolic no that won’t stop his nomination any way which can cost you your election?
I agree. Once Republicans lock in 50 votes for confirmation, Schumer will give the red state democrats like Manchin, Donnelly and Heidikamp a pass to vote to confirm. Because if Kavanaugh is going to be confirmed anyway, why risk sacrificing 3 or 4 senate seats just to trim the final margin of victory? Where it would really get interesting is if somehow Republican were 1 or 2 votes short and these democrat Senators would actually mean the difference between confirmation or rejection. Then Schumer would have a very hard decision to make, put pressure on these Senators to vote down the nomination, with the risk that they lose in November and Republicans get their nominee anyway when the now solid Republican Senate is seated next year, or give them a pass to vote for Kavanaugh with the calculus being that saving their senate seats is more important than defeating Kavanaugh. Of course that would send the liberal base into apocalyptic rage....