I would suggest that between one and two million folks who did vote Hillary in 2016....walked away and are now GOP/Trump voters. This shock will be felt in November as the poll guys admit their system failed again.
The bigger worry? You got two more years...what if another million of the 2016 Democratic voters walked away?
Try six more years.
Democrats claim that blacks have to be Democrats - but in fact, blacks haven’t had this good an economic/jobs condition in . . . well, ever.Four years of that could easily produce more than a 15% black vote for Trump in ’20. That by itself might beat the Democrats that year.
And if Trump could sustain that kind of performance through 2024 - and deliver more than a 20% black vote for Pence in ’24 - we are talking re-alignment.
Recognize, at the same time, that this isn’t your father’s Republican Party - basically, it has been taken over by Ross Perot’s Reform Party. And that is not the first time the party has been transformed in my lifetime: up to the Ford Administration it stayed in the wilderness for 40 years with what Jack Kemp called “root canal economics.” That was the idea that the budget had to be balanced - and if the Democrats raised spending, the Republicans would help raise tax rates "to balance the budget and prevent inflation” (not that that ever worked; the Democrats could always spend more money to buy votes and keep the Republicans looking like The Grinch Who Stole Christmas).