Posted on 07/18/2018 8:24:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Back in January, I wrote a National Review piece headlined, “Why You Should Ignore Every 2020 Poll.” Thus, what follows violates my own advice with the excuse that it is impossible to ignore the political equivalent of a train wreck. And that is how I characterize the latest rankings of the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination horse race.
My analysis is based on a July 6 Washington Post report, “The top 15 Democratic presidential candidates for 2020, ranked.”
As a Republican, glancing down the rankings, I can’t help but think that the Democrats have an extremely weak field with no one who can defeat Trump. Conversely, Democrats think anyone on this list can defeat Trump. (Writing this piece immediately after the Trump/Putin meeting, the Democrat’s mantra that “anyone can defeat Trump” is stronger than ever.)
Moreover, here is a lesson regarding 2020 that I learned from the last two incumbent presidential elections:
“Anyone can defeat Obama,” said Republicans in 2012, and in 2004 Democrats said, “Anyone can defeat George W. Bush.” Of course in both elections, voters were shocked and depressed when the incumbents were reelected.
Furthermore, do not underestimate the power of incumbency. There is a historical reelection rate of 68.7 percent, including a winning streak of the last three presidents who at times were unpopular and controversial.
With all that in mind, let’s circle back to the 2020 rankings.
1. Topping the list is former vice president Joe Biden whose number one ranking in January was the impetus for me suggesting ignoring every 2020 poll. But, with the official start of the 2020 presidential election the day after November 6 midterms, perhaps Biden’s consistent number one spot should not be ignored or downplayed.
Biden’s quest for the nomination will likely spark a generational civil war within the Democratic Party due to a grassroots base that is increasingly young, female, non-white and left-leaning. If in 2020, Biden, who would be 78-years-old does run and manages to win the nomination, he will be perceived as a “safe choice,” or a “vanilla pendulum swing away from Trump and back to “normalcy.” Along the way, Biden could say that he will only run for one-term and select an early and younger VP choice as the “future of the party.”
Many Democrats (especially young Democrats) shake their head with a “no way” answer when Biden’s name is mentioned. Still, the Washington Post poll has a total of 72 percent of Democrats comprised of 46 percent who say that they will “certainly consider” voting for Biden, and 26 percent will “consider” voting for him.
Biden’s encouraging numbers place him slightly ahead of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with his combined “certainly consider” and “consider” voting score totaling 66 percent.
2. Meanwhile, Sanders who turns 79 years old in 2020 is not even a Democrat — technically he is an Independent — but better known as a self-proclaimed Socialist.
Whether or not Sanders’ 2016’s slogan, "Feel the Bern" will be revived for 2020 is anyone’s guess. But this we know, if Democrats nominate an aging Socialist with a platform of free health care and free college for all, the chances of a more moderate Democrat running as an Independent will help perpetuate the incumbent’s reelection streak.
3. Third on the Washington Post ranking is Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Her “certainly consider” voting score is 28 percent and her “consider” voting score is 29 percent for a combined 57 percent. Perhaps it is just my Republican perspective, but when I think of Warren as the potential nominee, I am confident that she would follow in the grand tradition of the last two Massachusetts Democratic presidential nominees —John Kerry in 2004 and Michael Dukakis in 1988 — and go down in flames.
4. Fourth on the list is Hillary Clinton. All I can say about that is “I’m with her.” Please, please, Hillary go for it, and this time you can win!
What I find astounding about Democrats is they can’t move ahead, given that in these rankings 30 percent say that they would “certainly consider” voting for Clinton while 23 percent would “consider” it. Which leads me to ask, “Are 53 percent of Democrats who are open to voting for Clinton again stuck in a time warp or just brain-dead?"
5. Finally, fifth on the list is California Sen. Kamala Harris, and her scores are intriguing. While Harris’ “certainly consider” score is 15 percent and her “consider” score is 27 percent for a respectable 42 percent total, her neutral score with voters is 40 percent. That means she has much room to grow. Full disclosure: I am on record predicting that Harris will win the 2020 nomination and firmly believe that at the very least, she will be on the ticket. As the Democratic Party candidate from “Central Casting,” Kamala Harris is the perfect opponent for Trump in 2020.
And speaking of Trump, in what can be perceived as an unusual reality check, last Friday in an interview in Britain with Piers Morgan the president, when asked about reelection replied, “Well, you never know, er, what happens with health and other things. I mean, you know, let’s face it…”
Trump, later in the interview again when talking about reelection said, "Well I fully intend to. It seems like everybody wants me to.”
When Morgan asked if there was an opponent who could beat him, Trump said, "I don't see anybody. I know them all, and I don't see anybody."
On the contrary, even with this long lame list of Democrats, looking at the top five on the Washington Post’s ranking, I would recommend that Trump watch out for a Joe Biden one-term pledge with Kamala Harris as his VP.
Second, be on guard for Terry McAuliffe. Even at 12th on the list, he is Clinton-lite, working behind the scenes in 2018, and the smoothest operator in the Democratic Party.
Third, my favorite political maxims are always applicable, now more than ever, “politics is unpredictable” and “expect the unexpected.”
They will nominate Harris/Booker as their ticket.
It checks ALL their boxes.
They are currently arguing over who has to “come out”.
The author is correct in putting Biden as #1. Sure, Biden is getting up in years. But he’s very popular with working-class, shot-and-a-beer Democrats. Those are the Democrats that tipped the swing states to Trump.
I can’t see many of my blue-dog Democrat friends voting for Sanders or Warren. And for Hillary in 2020? No way. But they might go for Biden.
... Biden could say that he will only run for one-term and select an early and younger VP choice as the “future of the party...
Alexandria Occasional Cortez is too young to run for Vice President as the future of the Party. So,whom does that leave?
Very crowded at the bottom of the Demonrat barrel.
The DNC will toss Hillary in at the last minute to capture The Anybody But Hillary vote. TheDNC has to pick for the Dems because they know best.
Harris VP almost a lock. The Rats think she is the one but are
reluctant to put her up against an Incumbent. They don’t want the stench of a loss on her. Joe pledging one term to “rid the Nation of the horrible Trump” is intriguing idea but is anyone willingly going to promise to be a lame duck 2 years in? Meanwhile that worthless POS Romney held a meet and greet for donors and the former CEO of Starbuck who is considering running in 20 as a Democrat. Yep good thing Trump endorsed Romney in Utah for the Senate.
“last Friday in an interview in Britain with Piers Morgan the president, when asked about reelection replied, “Well, you never know, er, what happens with health and other things. I mean, you know, let’s face it…””
That’s the most interesting line in the article. It would be interesting to see and hear Trump say it, rather than just read it. It’s the first indication I’ve seen that Trump actually may not vote for reelection.
I agree. Biden is their best hope. Everyone else can can be easily marginalized by trump. Biden is hard to marginalize (not to us but to general public).
Harris IS NOT a natural born citizen, therefor ineligible to run for or server as President of the United States.
Just curious: Does any analyst think Kamala’s choice of an old rich white (male) husband, four years ago, will lose her millions of African-American votes?
For Harris to run at all, Trump’s supreme court nominees have to be defeated. With an originalist court, she can’t be on the ballot.
Why not roll out Michelle Obama to continue her husbands legacy. -Tom
Obama is today using his OFA to sabotage anything Trump....never has America had a President/ex-president who is willingly destroying capitalism in favor of Socialism...his army of protesters across this country can be ready at a moments notice to disrupt and vilify President Trump. Globalists/Deep State are on board with this fight against the United States Constitution.
Interesting. She has a white husband? But she herself isn’t exactly black, is she? Isn’t she some mixture?
Old Russian joke that today’s ‘Democratic Socialists’ should consider:
A Soviet commissar visits a Russian peasant.
Commissar: I am here to bring you socialism!
Peasant: I’ve never heard of that. What is socialism?
Commissar: Let me explain it this way. If your neighbor has two tractors, he must give you one.
Peasant: Socialism sounds great!
Commissar: And if your neighbor has two chickens, he must give you one.
Peasant: Socialism sounds great!
Commissar: And if your neighbor has two cows, he must give you one.
Peasant: Socialism doesn’t sound so good.
Commissar: (surprised) Why do you say that?
Peasant: Because I have two cows.
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And the popular wisdom was that the dinosaurs were extinct...
That field will offer as much excitement and substance as a cup of tapioca pudding.
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