Net means net, and the government figures include petro products, which is explained in the fine print:
Posted on 07/24/2018 6:42:28 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
It’s summer. It’s hot. We all want to go on vacation. But for those of us who watch the oil market, there’s a nagging feeling that we won’t get to read that trashy novel on the beach, because oil prices are ready to explode.
Who’s to blame?
Top of the list is Iranian President Hassan Rouhani who, on Sunday, warned the United States that conflict with the Islamic Republic would be “the mother of all wars.” Additionally, Rouhani’s comment that “We have always guaranteed the security” of the Strait of Hormuz — the comparatively narrow waterway from the Persian Gulf into the Indian Ocean, through which 40 percent of the world’s oil exports pass — was regarded as endorsing, rather than contradicting, Iranian threats to actually close the strait.
Rouhani’s words prompted President Trump to tweet his own warning, in capital letters.
Unsurprisingly, oil prices initially were up Monday but, at the time of this writing, had fallen below last Friday's close. West Texas Intermediate, the significant market indicator, remained below $70 per barrel.
Still, a new analysis has aroused other concerns. Veteran oil market-watcher Philip K. Verleger released a report from his firm, PKVerleger LLC, anticipating oil prices at $200, with the possibility of a surge to $400 per barrel, in the next 12 to 18 months.
Verleger’s focus was on an esoteric lack of diesel fuel, rather than geopolitical threats exchanged between Rouhani and Trump. But his analysis cannot be dismissed lightly. Refineries across the world are having to recalibrate to produce low-sulphur diesel to meet new environmental regulations, prompting shortages that can push prices up.
For those perplexed by the functioning of oil markets, here are a few guidelines to work out what is important:
Geopolitics: This is the fancy term for wars and crises. If the war is in the Middle East, this can be bad for oil markets, although the carnage of recent years in Syria and Yemen has been, in market terms, just background noise. The market can probably cope with reduced or even zero Iranian oil exports — but if Saudi exports were cut back, the impact would be bad.
All the talk about the Strait of Hormuz is, to my mind, a distraction: The inbound and outbound shipping lanes actually lie in Omani territorial waters; if Iran threatened tankers militarily (floating mines or fast boats are the obvious options), the U.S. Fifth Fleet, with the support of U.S. allies, would respond promptly and forcefully. I suspect Iran would prefer tactics where its fingerprints are less obvious — such as sabotaging Saudi or Bahraini oil installations, or encouraging insurrection by Shia Muslim communities in these countries.
OPEC and OPEC-Plus: Oil-exporting countries like high prices, which give them more money to spend at home (or in the south of France and similar places). A couple of years ago we may have thought that we had said goodbye to the Saudi-led cartel, but Riyadh teamed up with Moscow (hence “OPEC-Plus”) to restrain production, and especially to run down large stockpiles. The result is the current pricing. So far, recent talk of increasing production so that prices don’t go too high has been just talk.
Economics: Growth is good overall but it also increases demand for energy, thereby prompting price increases. Currently, the world economy is growing nicely; hence, the oil price increases of recent months. The growing prospect of a tariff war between the United States and China introduces a major uncertainty, which is bad for economic growth.
Technical factors: This is geek-speak for refinery and pipeline constraints. A barrel of crude oil is unusable as such; it needs to be subjected to “fractional distillation” in a refinery, producing diesel, gasoline, heavy fuel oil and a range of non-transport products, some even used in pharmaceuticals. The demand for each product is different and the various fractions cannot be adjusted significantly. A particular U.S. concern is pipeline availability; some of the new shale oil cannot be sent to refineries because there are not enough pipelines. And no one apparently wants a new pipeline route to go anywhere near their backyard.
So, plenty of possible threats exist to any practical calm in the oil markets — which, additionally, are worldwide, rather than regional. (Minor price differences between the United States, Europe and Asia reflect varying qualities of crude oil and distances from principal markets.)
The markets are sophisticated enough to absorb small amounts of bad news and presidential tweets but, like most us, don’t like uncertainty. Current political rhetoric is not helpful. It’s almost as if the story line from the trashy novel we wanted to read has become real life.
Summer is half over...in Florida the kids next to me go back August 15
If you want high gas prices go to California...
We still have net imports of 20% of our oil use. Demand exceeds supply. If the world price goes up, so does our price.
Supply and demand. Trump’s economic policies have been working. The world economy is growing. This means more people want to use oil products. The oil market is either slow to respond, or OPEC-plus limits production and the price increases due to supply not keeping up with demand.
Seems like this guy posts everything they publish everyday.
Maybe he works for them and is trying to get somebody to read their chit.
Just as valid as...maybe oil goes to $200/B.
I know this, but do you think Trump will sit back and let oil prices go through the roof?
I agree this is scare tactic but if oil prices do rise (as they do every summer for oft repeated reasons) can Democrats successfully use it against Trump and Republicans in the midterms.
It's something to be aware of before Democrats seize the issue and create their own narrative as to who is to blame.
People vote on wallet issues. If oil and gas go up they look for someone to blame and they blame those in power.
They could.
Or... they could not.
This is ‘news’?
We are producing more oil than ever. Why should prices go up?
I think they are building at one new refinery. This news must have been brought to us by the “Peak oil” group.
Could Obama cause WW3?
Could Comey cause political prisoners to be jailed?
Could Loretta Lynch secretly destroy the justice system?
Could HilLIARy’s fat ass farts increase global warming?
.
.
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I like this game
Given steadily rising US oil and gas production? No.
Want to see investment and production in the US really explode? $100/barrel oil would do it. There’s effectively an upper cap on prices given North American production growth.
Totally agree. The US, thanks to private sector fracking innovations, is the ultimate swing producer and, as oil prices rise, will expand production as fast as possible to meet demand.
Fracking innovation is moving at breakneck speed with efficiencies and production per well increasing as costs are falling. At even just $100 a barrel American production would increase very quickly and America will end up even more energy dominant than it is already.
Woe to OPEC.
Cheaper prices increase demand. Once prices reach a certain point, demand will decrease forcing prices to decline. We have an expanding global economy thanks to the US.
If you think closing down the straight would be bad for the US it would be catastrophic for Europe, China and the Asian tigers. China would beg the US to obliterate the mad dog mullahs and, if we refused, would likely try to take down Iran by itself. Germany would feel 'déjà vu all over again' as if it was having its oil supplies chocked off by allied bombing.
The US and Russia, like it or not, are the only energy independent superpowers and therefor would actually benefit in the long run if oil has a sustained spike. American manufacturing would benefit because of its far lower energy costs due to much cheaper electricity generated by natural gas, coal, and nuclear power. The chemical industry in America would boom even faster due to access to cheap natural gas as feedstock.
Would $200 oil cause pain, yes it would, but in the long run America would surge ahead of the pack even faster than it is doing now.
“could.” Meaningless word. The Moon could fly out of its orbit and destroy the Earth.
“We still have net imports of 20% of our oil use. Demand exceeds supply. If the world price goes up, so does our price.”
A large percentage of that net oil imports is actually exported as refined petroleum products so it is not as dire as you would think.
Just in case he does we,the United States of America,should light them up at the first sign that they plan to do so.
Because a whole lot of oil comes out of the Arabian Peninsula.
I agree... Higher oil prices actually BENEFIT the US chemical industry, as it makes ethylene produced by Naphtha (Much of the rest of the world) FAR MORE expensive that ethylene produced by ethane (US). Many downstream businesses are driven economically by regional differences in ethylene prices.
I think global oil production vs demand is much closer to being in balance than people think. The last time prices were high, there was NOTHING The producing countries could do to bring it down. They couldn't produce oil fast enough. Since then, production capability has increased, while the world has been recovering from a deep recession. If global demand really starts heating up again, I could see the world getting to a shortage faster than many people expect.
The wild card here is: How much is conservation, and fuel-switching tamping down demand? I tend to think the impact is minimal. So, yea... I think the trend towards higher oil prices is going to continue...
Or, not. ;-)
Net means net, and the government figures include petro products, which is explained in the fine print:
Russia is not a superpower. The US is not energy independent.
In 2017, the United States exported about 6.3 MMb/d of petroleum to 180 countries. About 82% of total petroleum exports were petroleum products.
The resulting net imports (imports minus exports) of petroleum were about 3.7 MMb/d.
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