Could oil prices skyrocket to $200 a barrel or more?not if they want to sell it...
Posted on 07/24/2018 6:42:28 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
It’s summer. It’s hot. We all want to go on vacation. But for those of us who watch the oil market, there’s a nagging feeling that we won’t get to read that trashy novel on the beach, because oil prices are ready to explode.
Who’s to blame?
Top of the list is Iranian President Hassan Rouhani who, on Sunday, warned the United States that conflict with the Islamic Republic would be “the mother of all wars.” Additionally, Rouhani’s comment that “We have always guaranteed the security” of the Strait of Hormuz — the comparatively narrow waterway from the Persian Gulf into the Indian Ocean, through which 40 percent of the world’s oil exports pass — was regarded as endorsing, rather than contradicting, Iranian threats to actually close the strait.
Rouhani’s words prompted President Trump to tweet his own warning, in capital letters.
Unsurprisingly, oil prices initially were up Monday but, at the time of this writing, had fallen below last Friday's close. West Texas Intermediate, the significant market indicator, remained below $70 per barrel.
Still, a new analysis has aroused other concerns. Veteran oil market-watcher Philip K. Verleger released a report from his firm, PKVerleger LLC, anticipating oil prices at $200, with the possibility of a surge to $400 per barrel, in the next 12 to 18 months.
Verleger’s focus was on an esoteric lack of diesel fuel, rather than geopolitical threats exchanged between Rouhani and Trump. But his analysis cannot be dismissed lightly. Refineries across the world are having to recalibrate to produce low-sulphur diesel to meet new environmental regulations, prompting shortages that can push prices up.
For those perplexed by the functioning of oil markets, here are a few guidelines to work out what is important:
Geopolitics: This is the fancy term for wars and crises. If the war is in the Middle East, this can be bad for oil markets, although the carnage of recent years in Syria and Yemen has been, in market terms, just background noise. The market can probably cope with reduced or even zero Iranian oil exports — but if Saudi exports were cut back, the impact would be bad.
All the talk about the Strait of Hormuz is, to my mind, a distraction: The inbound and outbound shipping lanes actually lie in Omani territorial waters; if Iran threatened tankers militarily (floating mines or fast boats are the obvious options), the U.S. Fifth Fleet, with the support of U.S. allies, would respond promptly and forcefully. I suspect Iran would prefer tactics where its fingerprints are less obvious — such as sabotaging Saudi or Bahraini oil installations, or encouraging insurrection by Shia Muslim communities in these countries.
OPEC and OPEC-Plus: Oil-exporting countries like high prices, which give them more money to spend at home (or in the south of France and similar places). A couple of years ago we may have thought that we had said goodbye to the Saudi-led cartel, but Riyadh teamed up with Moscow (hence “OPEC-Plus”) to restrain production, and especially to run down large stockpiles. The result is the current pricing. So far, recent talk of increasing production so that prices don’t go too high has been just talk.
Economics: Growth is good overall but it also increases demand for energy, thereby prompting price increases. Currently, the world economy is growing nicely; hence, the oil price increases of recent months. The growing prospect of a tariff war between the United States and China introduces a major uncertainty, which is bad for economic growth.
Technical factors: This is geek-speak for refinery and pipeline constraints. A barrel of crude oil is unusable as such; it needs to be subjected to “fractional distillation” in a refinery, producing diesel, gasoline, heavy fuel oil and a range of non-transport products, some even used in pharmaceuticals. The demand for each product is different and the various fractions cannot be adjusted significantly. A particular U.S. concern is pipeline availability; some of the new shale oil cannot be sent to refineries because there are not enough pipelines. And no one apparently wants a new pipeline route to go anywhere near their backyard.
So, plenty of possible threats exist to any practical calm in the oil markets — which, additionally, are worldwide, rather than regional. (Minor price differences between the United States, Europe and Asia reflect varying qualities of crude oil and distances from principal markets.)
The markets are sophisticated enough to absorb small amounts of bad news and presidential tweets but, like most us, don’t like uncertainty. Current political rhetoric is not helpful. It’s almost as if the story line from the trashy novel we wanted to read has become real life.
Below are the 15 countries that imported the highest dollar value worth of crude oil during 2017:
China: US$162.2 billion (18.6% of total crude oil imports)
United States: $139.1 billion (15.9%)
Japan: $63.7 billion (7.3%)
India: $60.2 billion (6.9%)
South Korea: $59.6 billion (6.8%)
Netherlands: $37.4 billion (4.3%)
Germany: $36.2 billion (4.1%)
Italy: $26.1 billion (3%)
Spain: $25.7 billion (2.9%)
France: $23.8 billion (2.7%)
Singapore: $21.4 billion (2.5%)
United Kingdom: $20.9 billion (2.4%)
Thailand: $20.1 billion (2.3%)
Taiwan: $16.9 billion (1.9%)
Belgium: $15.3 billion (1.7%)
The listed 15 countries purchased 83.4% of all crude oil imports in 2017 (by value).
None of these top importers experienced a boost in the value of their crude oil purchases from 2013 to 2017.
Among the above countries, the fastest-declining crude oil importers since 2013 were: India (down -59.3%), Japan (down -56.3%), Germany (down -52.2%), United States (down -50.2%), Taiwan (down -49.7%), Thailand (down -48.5%) and United Kingdom (down -48%).
Sure it isn't. /sarc
“as of 2017, Russian Federation possesses 7,300 total nuclear warheads, of which 4,500 are strategically operational.” Source https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
I agree that Russia isn't in America's league but to claim that it isn't a superpower is ludicrous.
Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of crude oil during 2017:
Saudi Arabia: US$133.6 billion (15.9% of total crude oil exports)
Russia: $93.3 billion (11.1%)
Iraq: $61.5 billion (7.3%)
Canada: $54 billion (6.4%)
United Arab Emirates: $49.3 billion (5.9%)
Iran: $40.1 billion (4.8%)
Kuwait: $38.2 billion (4.5%)
Nigeria: $33 billion (3.9%)
Angola: $30.5 billion (3.6%)
Kazakhstan: $26.6 billion (3.2%)
Norway: $25.9 billion (3.1%)
Venezuela: $23.1 billion (2.7%)
United States: $21.8 billion (2.6%)
Mexico: $19.9 billion (2.4%)
United Kingdom: $19 billion (2.3%)
The listed 15 countries accounted for 79.6% of all crude oil exports in 2017 (by value).
Only two of the above top 15 exporters increased the value of their crude oil shipments from 2013 to 2017, namely the United States with its 328% improvement in revenue and Iraq via a modest 0.6% gain.
The 13 other top sources of crude oil posted declines over the 5-year period ranging from -69.2% for Venezuela and -55.5% for Nigeria down to -32% for Canada and -14.5% for Iran.
Other notable declines include -54.5% for Saudi Arabia, -53.6% for Kazakhstan, -53.4% for Angola, -53.3% for Mexico, -52.1% for Kuwait, -48% for Norway and -46.3% for Russia.
Hmmm... how much does PKVerleger LLC have invested in oil futures?
Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country. It is Mexico with nukes. Nuclear weapons is not the sole metric of what constitutes a superpower.
Russia's GDP per capita is $27,900, which makes it 72nd in the world, just ahead of Greece. The US is $59,500, which makes it 19th.
In terms of GDP (purchasing power parity)or value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given year. A nation's GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates is the sum value of all goods and services produced in the country valued at prices prevailing in the United States in the year noted. This is the measure most economists prefer when looking at per-capita welfare and when comparing living conditions or use of resources across countries, Russia is 7th with $4 trillion compared to $19.3 trillion for the US. China has $23.1 trillion.
Russia has a population of 142 million compared to US with 330 million. Russia's population growth rate is a negative .08% making it 207th in the world. Its infant mortality rate is 163rd in the world. The fertility rate is 1.61 (replacement level is 2.1) making it 179th in the world.
The life expectancy at birth is 71 years (154th in the world) and for males it is 65.3 years.
Russia is in decline in so many ways. I have visited Russia about a dozen times, albeit before 2000. In the State Department we used to describe Russia either as the most developed underdeveloped country in the world or the least developed developed country in the world.
Calling Russia a superpower is laughable.
Yep
Where I live at least 50 cents per gallon is going to state taxes.
My enemy is not Big Oil.
He laments a lack of low sulfur heavy crude oil from which to process the needed fuel with available refinery. The tar sands of Utah have exactly the crude oil properties he desires. Given that a viable economic process to extract heavy oil from tar-sands in Utah is actually factual (Petroteq Process), then 15 billion bbl. of the appropriate grade of crude is available from Utah, home to 50% of U.S. tar-sand deposits. It does require a substantial build-out of extraction plants to go from 1000 bbl-per-day pilot plant, to an influential quantity for world market purposes.
https://petroteq.energy/technology/oil-sands-extraction
https://www.sltrib.com/news/business/2018/06/16/weve-heard-it-before-but-this-utah-tar-sands-operations-says-its-poised-to-produce-oil-and-actually-make-money/
Yes, the U.S. exports crude from west coast to Asia, and refined products worldwide. NG liquid market expanding outside European destinations.
Because prices are set in a global market. A disruption of one or more major suppliers affects everyone.
Shale oil is not sufficient for many refineries, those that produce diesel or heavy fuel oils. They need Canadian oil sands, heavy crude from Venezuela, or alternative heavy oil sources for economic operation.
“If oil prices rise will the MSM and Democrats try to pin it on Trumps’ polices?”
Duh. If there were an outbreak of butt pimples in America the left would blame it on Trump.
WE are producing more oil than ever. But Venezuela and Iran are collapsing in oil production, and many nations’ oil use is soaring.
More Continuing Fear Mongering: The Deep State so called experts will not cease to predict POTUS downfall, President Trump knows what he is doing... TRUST THE PLAN!
When it appears Trump has let us down he has not, is not and will not, he is a master at Trolling the Deep State keeping them at a heightened state of chaos forcing their hand to expose their treason, he is controlling their every move. For those with eyes to see and ears to hear it is overwhelmingly evident.
WWG1WGA... Fear Not STAND FAST
Mexico is joke. The Eagle Ford Shale play exists in their country. Maybe they have banned fracing.
“Calling Russia a superpower is laughable.”
It was laughable to compare the economy and the military of Russia to that of Nazi Germany but we all know how that turned out. Push comes to shove the Russians can and will spend enough of their blood to win regardless of the cost. Russia, armed with over 7k nuclear weapons, a highly educated and savage populace, and being led by some of the most remorseless and violent leaders is not to be dismissed lightly.
If Hitler and Napoleon were alive the would tell you to your face that you are delusional.
Give me a break. There is no comparison between Russia today and Nazi Germany. For what is worth, Nazi Germany arose from the failure of the economy under the Weimar Republic along with the reparations and restrictions placed on Germany by the Allies in WWI.
Push comes to shove the Russians can and will spend enough of their blood to win regardless of the cost.
LOL. The Russian performance in Afghanistan is an example of how effective the Russian military really is. Does anyone really think Russia could mount an invasion of Europe or even have the stomach for it? There has been plenty of unhappiness in Russia with their involvement in Syria. Putin would like to eliminate the draft and go to an all volunteer force, but the number of volunteers has declined. And demographics is also playing a role as Russia ages.
Russia, armed with over 7k nuclear weapons, a highly educated and savage populace, and being led by some of the most remorseless and violent leaders is not to be dismissed lightly.
The Russians are also rational. They will not commit mass suicide by launching a nuclear war against the US. They are also not a "savage populace." Russia is not the major threat to the US, China is. And it goes beyond the military.
Russia is not a superpower as much as you would like to picture it. It is a country in decline.
KABAR your stupidity is showing. Your attempts to ignore 200 years of history and commonly accepted facts is making you look as stupid and as unhinged as a rabid lefty. Please stop for your own good.
So Sad.
Could oil prices skyrocket to $200 a barrel or more?not if they want to sell it...
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