I would suggest a ‘perfect storm’.
First, Qatar got the World Cup games, and there’s rapid expansion going on there with condos, shopping, etc. Iranians have been negative about the banking sector for several decades, and I think about four years ago....the businessmen of Iran started to take their profits, and move them into Qatar (quietly) and invest in things....waiting on the Iran bank sector to fail.
Second, Dubai is under rapid expansion, with tons of condos being sold, and it’s the same story....Iranians with capital moving out out in the form of dollars or Euro.
Third, if you look at mortgages...it’s an issue now, because the money you’d expect to be there...from wealthy guys and business owners...is not there. Banks don’t have money to loan out.
Maybe if the Mullahs had some business background, they’d realize what’s happened here. But with zero confidence, unless the EU or someone comes in to save them....I think the banks will merge for the most part over the next twelve months, and you start to see more riots by summer of 2019.
I thought that Dubai was more of a Saudi client, but there is nothing like greenbacks to make new alliances.
If Iran is looking for a financial savior, there is the EU, Russia or China ... and all want a good return on their investment.
“Maybe if the Mullahs had some business background...”
Which is kind of interesting, since the mullahs, their families and friends control a large part of Iran’s economy.
Thanks for your intel, which never makes any Iranian news from our MMS!
“...start to see more riots by summer of 2019”
We may not have to wait. They are several hours ahead of the US, and it is already a big night for protests. Just saw a clip of one from Tehran, were they were chanting Mot! Mot! (Death! Death!) Basiji, and another (smaller) in Tehran chanting “DEATH TO THE DICTATOR”.
Police motorcycles were burning, and the home a local Basiji commander was attacked. On any given night, the Basiji might break and run, and a mob might lynch the Dear Leader. The regime could crack quickly, when the cracking comes.
Just like back in January, the chanting is strongly anti-regime. There have been a number of significant protests about economic themes, but there has also been a lot of fiery anti-regime rhetoric, for which they could be hung.
Dubai is NOT undergoing rapid expansion—it’s shrinking. Your info is bad.