To send a messy message: After being released from Russian prison Skripal was traveling to countries, including the Baltic States discussing Russian intelligence techniques.
I don’t believe it is in Russia’s interest to do so.
It was definitely in their interest to kill the guy, but not at the cost of CW sanctions. They are severe if implemented.
For your scenario to be plausible, Russia would have intended to get caught using a nerve agent to kill a traitor to their state. On foreign soil.
When they could have easily killed him in an untraceable fashion.
It doesn’t add up. At least to me.