Posted on 08/13/2018 12:20:57 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The deracinated Democrats, still unable to accept their loss in the 2016 presidential election, have pinned their hopes on the iron laws of "history" and its noble arc to tell themselves that, since the party in power usually (but not always!) loses congressional seats in an off-year national election, there's a mighty "Blue Wave" coming this fall that will sweep the GOP from power in the House and tee up articles of impeachment against president Trump, because waaaahhhhhh.
Then again, maybe not:
For all the talk of a blue wave sweeping Democrats back into the House majority this fall, their efforts could be thwarted in one of the nation's bluest states.
Voters in the sprawling farm country south of Minneapolis and in the economically struggling Iron Range along the Canadian border give Republicans in those two congressional districts perhaps their best chance anywhere for flipping Democratic seats. Democrats need to pick up 23 seats in November to retake the House, but the odds grow long if they lose districts they currently hold.
Democratic incumbents in both Minnesota districts are leaving office, and the races to replace them are widely rated as tossups. President Donald Trump carried both by about 15 points in 2016, even as Hillary Clinton narrowly won Minnesota. "Minnesota is going to be ground zero for control of the House," said Corry Bliss, director of the Conservative Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan.
The GOP is also eying two seats in Nevada and single seats in Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as possible flips.
To reiterate: maybe not:
Republicans appear to have closed the gap with Democrats in the all-important “generic ballot” — a clear sign that the GOP is surging politically in the run-up to the November 2018 midterms. Democrats continue to insist that a “Blue Wave” will sweep their party back into control of the House of Representatives and may even allow them to recapture the Senate as well. But the generic ballot — the best single measure of the relative balance of support of the two parties with the electorate — strongly suggests otherwise.
In the last week alone, three major pollsters have found that the gap between the two parties is statistically negligible. YouGov found a Democratic advantage of just 2 points. Reuters found a margin of 3 points. And IBB/TIPP, considered by many to be the single most reliable pollster in the country, reported that the race is a dead heat. These findings, which contrast sharply with the large double-digit lead Democrats enjoyed last December, and again in early July, put the lie to their party’s claims of growing Trump and GOP weakness.
Maybe. The generic polls are essentially meaningless in the post-Trump era, and it's still months to November. The Democrats could nominate a bunch of smart, attractive candidates who might well whip certain GOP stalwarts (I'm thinking of two senators, but since only one of them is up this fall, the other one is not named Ted Cruz, although he does represent a neighboring state...).
For instance, in an appearance on CNN on Monday, when challenged on the costs of government-financed health care, she answered: “Why aren’t we incorporating the cost of all the funeral expenses of those who died because they can’t afford access to health care? That is part of the cost of our system.”
Huh?
Like I said, Maybe Not.
Cowabunga Dude
Blue Wave = Great Pumpkin
Ha, Joe Crowley is still on the balllot! He claims he is not running, but maybe he will have his revenge anyway.
We should treat it as a possible Blue Wave.
These polls are meaningless and heavily slanted towards Democrats. If there is a virtually negligible difference, you can bet the Republicans are at least 10 points ahead. I for one, will not tell pollsters who I support or will tell them I support the Democrat, and I suspect many other Trump supporters do the same as well.
Keep hoping little libs; your suffering is sweet.
That Red Tsunami and the lamentations of their women. That is what is best in life.
Bingo!! Had not seen your post before my own.
The reality is, and its just as evident as Trump’s victory was in 2016...
The DEMS are on target to take the house... and the GOP refuses to do what it needs to to stop it.
The ONLY chance the GOP has for holding the house is the Dems to completely overplay their hand....
Sadly, the GOP refuses to learn from Trump....
A blue wave would require them to replicate the Rahm Emmanuel strategy of ‘06. Run moderate sounding blue-dog white guys in red and red-leaning districts.
The radical Left is now in control of the party, and will not allow this to happen.
Things are shaping up pretty well. Trump is 14 for 14 in the primaries, so no matter what the next GOP Caucus will be much more Trump-y than the current one. There are some good pickup opportunities in the Senate. The biggest challenge is to keep the House, but I have trouble believing that people in swing districts are really going to go Democrat, with people like Pelosi, Waters and AOC charting the course for them.
I wish would stop slow-rolling these scandals, but I know he’s probably going to declassify everything Aug. 31st at the same time Mueller admits there’s nothing there.
It’s almost as if the GOP doesn’t really want to win. Could it be? naaaah. They have no cohesive message when there are so many great things to talk about, that is for sure. Feckless as usual. A setup as usual. A replacement party is needed.
As Lucy used to say about brother Linus waiting for the Great Pumpkin :
“WHAT A BLOCKHEAD” !
They haven’t offered a message, particularly to anyone who isn’t part of their traditional core... and that’s why they are likely to lose. Those non traditional MAGA and Cross Over voters are why Trump Won! Particularly why he won the upper midwest.... Those folks aren’t going to show up simply because you run ads saying the Dem will be a pelosi clone.... And without them, you are going to lose a lot of purple and pink districts, particularly in that area.
Dems are motivated, they are going to turn out at near presidential year numbers this fall... I won’t matter in deep red places.. but places that aren’t so red, the purple and pink districts? They are going to lose a good number of them.. and almost certainly the house as well.
The ONLY prayer the GOP has is that the Dems overplay their hands and do something the GOP seems incapable of... motivating those voters to show up to spite the D’s and their insanity.. not to support R’s....
The SC confirmation hearings are probably the key to the fall for the GOP.... The closer they are to election day, and the crazier the Dems and their base go in their theater, knowing full well he’s qualified and will get confirmed is probably what will determine the outcome in NOV.
The GOP is pushing to confirm by the time of the next SC session in early Oct..... If they do, that the insanity will be a memory for those non traditional voters... if however its closer to election day, it may indeed pull them in.
So, tactical decision.. confirm the new guy before the new term, or push it closer to election day to enjoy the free votes the lefts insanity will bring out against them.
I think we lose some in the House and gain a few in the Senate. But we’d better get out every vote and do what we can to get out those votes.
The Dims are fired up to a point. Many won’t vote. They are going to rely on voter fraud.
They will never allow another loss again if they can help it. They learned from the Hillary loss.
Another thing we have on our side is that the Dims are showing their true, ugly colors and normal, sane and sensible people don’t like what they see.
GOP is going to gain in the Senate that’s a given, just looking at the MAP you know the GOP is going to gain, statewide races... but the House... if the GOP doesn’t get those non traditional MAGA and crossovers to care and show up... they are toast.... lot of pink and purple districts will flip.
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