A finish of +8 is still reasonably possible.
Until the RINO party sits the noobs down and helps them understand that they WILL follow the RINO playbook.
Thanks Teach! Excellent analysis.
I have always felt pretty good about this Senate election. The Dems are still defending a bunch of seats they won because Obama was on the ballot in 2012.
The Senate map starts getting harder for Republicans next time... in 2020. But, for now? It looks good for us to hold the Senate, and THAT is the MOST important thing for Trump, and America. It means: Judges get confirmed.
Republicans have 51 senators at present.Of those,
- 22 were (re)elected in 2016,
- 24 were (re)elected in 2014, and only
- 8 were (re)elected in 2012 (Obama’s reelection year).
That totals to 54, but there has been some attrition (Session’s seat, for example).
In the absence of a seismic event, it figures that there would be some reversion to the mean. Assuming parity between the parties, the mean would be half of 33 and 1/3, or about 17 seats won in the “average” (as if there were such a thing) election. So even if the mean is parity, the Republicans “should" pick up an additional 8 or 9 seats this November. If the results of the past two elections were “the new normal," the Republicans “should" pick up an additional 14 seats this November.
Your study suggests that the Republicans will probably not get 8 additional seats, let alone 14. I sure hope that the results of 2014 and 2016 do not revert to parity in 2020 and 2022, but if they do, the Republicans will be in big trouble if they don’t improve substantially on the results of 2012 this year.
A week can be an eternity in politics, so a lot can happen to upset any predictions now of what will happen Nov. 6, so who knows. I sure hope something like spokeshave2’s prediction does the trick for the Republicans.