[DesScorp]

The GOP will probably hold the House, and will gain seats in the Senate.

Let me be clear and say that again. THE GOP WILL GAIN SEATS IN THE SENATE.

[pepsionice]

The 7th of November, we will awaken and find that there’s a GOP person occupying Flake and Corkers Senate seats....that Heller wins the Nevada situation with less than a 1,000 vote difference, and along the way, the GOP picked up five additional Senate seats.

Come January 2019, Corker, Flake and McCain will be gone, and a new landscape will exist.

[LS]

No question. I’ve said that for six months. Given the number of seats the Ds have to defend, it’s nearly inevitable.

Right now I have a NET gain of about 4 in the senate, but that could change if we hold AZ and NV to net gain of 5-6.

However, there are a few longshots like John James in MI, the recently opened seat in MN, and the always “gettable” Joe Manchin in WV, plus Tester in MT. Richard Baris claims Tester overpolls.

I think it’s 50/50 that we get at least one of those, and not out of the question that we get 2.

As for the House, too soon. AZ hasn’t even had its primary yet, though early primary voting is REALLY good for Rs. As of last night, Republican early voting outpaced Democrats by nearly 12 points (!). This is significant in that Rs usually don’t vote early-—but, caution: R leadership has been pushing early voting, and in OH sent out flyers explaining why “concerns” over early voting weren’t valid. GOP research shows that an early voter will almost always vote the whole ticket, vs. a ED voter who often will only vote a couple of “big” races.

So it’s possible the AZ early vote advantage in part reflects a little “cannibalizing” of election day, but nevertheless, rule of thumb, if the DemoKKKrats can’t win the early vote, they can’t win.

I’m watching about 30 House races, including John Faso’s NY seat; Steve Chabot in OH; CA 48 and 49; AZ1 and McSally’s seat; a couple in FL which really seem to have solidified; two in MN (I think it’s 1 and 8, but 3 is a possibility—two of them as D to R flips); and the seats in PA. If we win a majority of those, no way the DemoKKKrats take the House. But too soon to say right now.

[painter]

Let me be clear and say that again. THE GOP WILL GAIN SEATS IN THE SENATE

...and maybe A LOT of seats! As many as TEN!