Arizona governor faces pressure over McCain replacement

The Hill ^ | 08/26/18 | Reid Wilson

[yesthatjallen]

For more than a year, Cindy McCain kept Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) updated on her husband's valiant battle against brain cancer.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) ended that final battle on Saturday, passing away just four days before his 82nd birthday, 32 years after winning his first term in the Senate.

Now it falls to Ducey to choose McCain's successor. The first-term governor has already begun considering a list of potential replacements, according to four Republicans either familiar with Ducey's thinking or close to those who have been involved in initial discussions.

But Ducey, both conscious of McCain's status as one of the nation's most respected statesmen and war heroes and nervous about his own reelection bid this November, has squelched speculation about who might inherit McCain's seat.

A spokesman in Ducey's office declined to comment. None of the Republicans familiar with Ducey's thinking agreed to speak on the record, in order to detail private and sensitive conversations.

Most speculation focused on three potential candidates: Maj. Gen. Michael McGuire, the director of the Arizona Department of Emergency and Military Affairs and the adjutant general of the state's Army and Air National Guards; Karrin Taylor Robson, a wealthy businesswoman whom Ducey appointed to the state Board of Regents in 2017; and Kirk Adams, a former state House Speaker who is now Ducey's chief of staff.

Several sources also pointed to former Sen. Jon Kyl (R), McCain's longtime seatmate who is now shepherding Judge Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court, and former Rep. John Shadegg (R), who left Congress in 2011.

The New York Times on Sunday added state Treasurer Eileen Klein (R) and Barbara Barrett, a former ambassador to Finland under President George W. Bush.

Ducey is said to be acutely aware of what Arizona's conservative activists -- those who most closely follow and approve of President Trump -- are thinking. Ducey needs those voters for his own reelection bid, and he is likely to consider his own political future, one that would benefit from a close relationship with Trump. Ducey is already close with Vice President Pence.

Those relationships mean that other potential Senate candidates once thought to be under consideration have fallen victim to political circumstance.

Cindy McCain, who may have served as a caretaker of her husband's seat, is no longer seen as a potential appointee. Grant Woods, John McCain's first congressional chief of staff and a candidate long seen as McCain's choice to take his seat, endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016, likely making him a nonstarter with the White House.

Several potential candidates who began jockeying for an appointment late last year were so public about their ostensibly private bids that they effectively played themselves out of contention. In a radio interview last year, Ducey said those who were "openly lobbying for this position, they've basically disqualified themselves by showing their true character."

Republicans close to Ducey interpreted his remarks as chin music meant for Rep. Paul Gosar (R), former Rep. Matt Salmon (R) and former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R).

Gosar, a hyper-conservative member of the House Freedom Caucus, is almost certainly a nonstarter, even before his overt campaigning for the seat angered Ducey. Salmon, now the chief lobbyist for Arizona State University, was seen as indelicate in sending out feelers about the possibility of winning the appointment. And Ward is likely to lose Tuesday's Republican primary to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R) to a more establishment rival, making her appointment unlikely.

Whomever Ducey chooses to replace McCain will serve in the Senate until 2020, when Arizona voters will choose someone to fill the two remaining years of the term McCain won in 2016.

Ducey said Saturday he would wait until McCain is buried before he names a successor. McCain will lie in state in both the Arizona and the U.S. Capitol, before he is buried at the U.S. Naval Academy's cemetery in Annapolis, Md.

[COBOL2Java]

The left was banking on the widow angle, no one could oppose Cindy because she lost her husband. I think that’s why we’ve had the 24/7 McCain was God narrative, the left wants to keep his seat.

How the Establishment Views McCain’s Senate Seat

RUSH: Lawrence in Los Angeles. You’re next as we head back to the phones. It’s great that you waited. I appreciate that patience.

CALLER: Hello, Rush. How you doing?

RUSH: Fine. Thank you, sir.

CALLER: Hey, Rush. I’ve been listening to Governor Ducey of Arizona. He’s thinking of appointing John McCain’s wife after the senator passes, and I just don’t understand the sense of the Republican Party, what they’re thinking when they finally have a chance to put a conservative in there that will back this president, and they’re gonna go with… I don’t know what Ms. McCain’s politics is, but if it’s anything like Senator McCain’s, it’s not good.

RUSH: Sadly, none of that is a factor. And, by the way, the default idea that Republicans want conservatives is not necessarily true, sadly. But I think… Remember when the Democrat… Who was it? Carnahan. Mel Carnahan passed away, and immediately his wife — the soon-to-become-known Widow Carnahan — assumed office, because it was assumed to be his office.

It was assumed to be the Carnahan seat, just as this is presumed to be the McCain seat. McCain has not been defeated. McCain will have passed away. Therefore, it goes to his wife because it’s McCain’s seat. It’s an honor. I understand your thoughts on this. But I don’t think any of the factors you mentioned would be used in determining who should be appointed to it. The fact that they’ve already announced…

I don’t know if they’ve announced it or if it’s just a news story on the basis of informed rumor. But I’ve seen it, that his wife, Cindy, will assume the seat. It’s being extended as a measure of respect for Senator McCain under the premise that he didn’t lose the seat in an election. But it points up, you know, one of the problems with the establishment and how they view seats and positions of power within the club.

[1Old Pro]

It’s being extended as a measure of respect for Senator McCain under the premise that he didn’t lose the seat in an election.

What does that mean?

[COBOL2Java]

What does that mean?

It means extending the Senate seat to Cindy because she's a widow is throwing smelly Obama on the wall to see if it will stick.

[Lakeside Granny]

Thank you so much for labeling all people of AZ “ignoramuses.”

Does that include all of us that have not voted for McCain in years except in ‘08 because they didn’t want Obama?

[Ambrosia]

Thanks LG... I have some good ‘Trump supporting’ friends near Tuscon~ I thought Hillary was only one ‘lumping us all in same basket’...lol

[Political Junkie Too]

It would be a nuke bomb to name primary loser (Ward) to a seat...

No, you missed my point.

I said to name the primary winner to the seat, and then elevate the loser to the general election.

it would be an insult to the voters to put in place someone who was rejected by the majority GOP for the nomination.

Again, this is backwards. By appointing the primary winner, it would reward the voters with an instant Senator, and give the primary loser a second chance.

-PJ

[Lakeside Granny]

I certainly hope you are right on the not dawdling, the suspense is killing me.

Going to vote tomorrow for the fair Dr. Kelly, the good Sheriff should have bowed out but....

Terrific idea to appoint you, should we all call Doug?

[Lakeside Granny]

I am so sorry to hear this and am very disappointed in her for not listening to you as I know you would have given her excellent advise.

It she loses tomorrow it’s her own dang fault.

If she could have shut out McSally and all the establishment money spent against her...(sadly shaking my head!)

[Lakeside Granny]

You’re welcome.

It frosts me that peeps here on FR can’t see that going up against the pubbie establishment machine is not an easy thing.

I know of NO ONE who is a republican that votes for McCain but election after election....

Deplorable I will wear proudly but ignoramus, naw, not so much. LOL

[LS]

Ok. That would work. Hearing now Ducey may want the seat in 2020 so doesn’t want a permanent replacement there.

[Political Junkie Too]

The idea is not without its trade-offs.

If the primary winner accepts the appointment, she will be trading a sure two years in the Senate for a chance at eight years but with all the fundraising and campaigning that goes with it. She will have to run again as an incumbent in 2020 to finish the term, and again in 2022 for the chance at a full six years.

Since this will create a vacancy in the general election, the state Republican party will be free to select any replacement candidate that they want. While the runner-up in the primary would be nice, it doesn't have to be that person. However, it will need to be somebody with a ground organization in place, so a primary candidate would make sense.

If the primary winner would rather have the direct shot at an outright six-year term, then the voters might not see the runner-up being appointed as a slap at the winner, because that person will need to run again two more times.

-PJ

[Pollard]

His wikipedia page looked pretty decent. Trumplike

[b4me]

what day is this Rush comment from?

majority of people who lose a spouse are not in a right mind to take on such a position. same goes for meghan, it’s ridiculous to give a seat to a family member who is dealing with huge loss, so much legal etc stuff to make sure gets done no time to fully embrace new position of senator. and all it entails.

Unless they really didnt give a crap about him either and don’t feel so bad he is gone - then maybe their mind is clear enough to take on the job.

[LS]

The idea was suggested to me by an AZ person that Ducey may want the seat in 2020 and therefore wants a “temp” in it.

[matthew fuller]

I nominate Carol Shepp McCain.....

[jonrick46]

I think Gov. Jan Brewer would be the best choice. I understand she might not be very enthused for the job, but with President Trump’s encouragement, she would do it for the sake of the country.

[jonrick46]

I think Gov. Jan Brewer would be the best choice. See my post 116.

[nutmeg]

Oh, and I humbly volunteer for the seat.

And I humbly endorse you as the next U.S. Senator from Arizona! :-)

Really, really interesting post, Larry... thanks!

[Political Junkie Too]

Ducey may himself be a temp in 2020, because that class is up for reelection in 2022.

-PJ

[LS]

Good one.