[Impy]

The rat vote share for President in AZ has been remarkably stable. It was close cause of Gary Johnson but Hillary didn’t really do that well.

She got 44.58%, which is only slightly better than the 44.45% Obama got in 2012 and less than the 44.91% he got in 2008. Kerry got 44.32%, Gore got 44.67%. Bubba won in 1996 with 46.52%.

GOP outpolled the rats in the primary by 100K plus.

I believe the Senate race is close but I’m skeptical of this weak gubernatorial rat having a real chance.

[LS]

Inescapable fact: Arizona Rs own 150,000 vote edge in registrations.

There are 1.2m indies, but indies nationally only vote at about a 30% rate (vs. 50% or more for the parties).

That means out of 400,000 voters, Enema has to get about 2:1 just to break even if turnout is the same.

But, of course, turnout was NOT the same: Rs had 140,000 more turn out in the primary over Enema and her Moslem opponent.

[AuH2ORepublican]

“The polling group says the research was conducted on behalf of Garcia’s campaign.”

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Even if this wasn’t the case, we all know that PPP is an agenda-driven pollster seeking to boost Democrat chances in November. But the fact that the Garcia campaign had to pay PPP to reach this result tells me that Ducey is up by near double digits.