Hurricane Florence & Isaac

NHC/NOAA ^ | 9 September 2018 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.

The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.

Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.

Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.

Click on the images below to enlarge

Hurricane Florence	Isaac
Florence Public Advisory	Isaac Public Advisory
Florence Forecast Discussion	Isaac Forecast Discussion
Buoy/Observations near Florence	Buoy/Observations near Isaac

National Data Buoy Center

Local Weather:
Norfolk VA
Morehead City NC
Wilmington NC
Charleston SC
Jacksonville FL
San Juan PR

[CJ Wolf]

It’s been raining for 2 days straight here in nova.

[NautiNurse]

Isaac has graduated to hurricane status...

Hurricane Florence continues to strengthen...
Max sustained winds 90 mph
Moving W at 7 mph
Min pressure 974 mb

Hurricane Florence model guidance and NHC prediction is in agreement
within 90 nautical miles cross-track spread at 72 h and less than
120 n mi spread at 96 h, just prior to expected landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[Guenevere]

Thanks!
Keeping an eye out for Florida and NC

[JohnBrowdie]

the first of the anticipated movement north of west was in the 11pm advisory. perhaps this is the beginning of the turn.

[NELSON111]

Yeah. A stalled tropical system is horrible. Freshwater flooding kills more people than storm surge or wind combined. This one is going to be a killer I’m afraid.

[NautiNurse]

Can’t believe my eyes with the forecast track slowing Florence to a crawl at landfall. It appears the storm only moves inland ~90 miles in 24 hours (8PM Thu-8PM Fri), roughly equating to meandering 4 mph.

[jpsb]

I think he was saying for the Carolina/Virginia area.

[jpsb]

Worst case, if Flo stalls and sits for days.

[caww]

Western Pa here and we’ve had two days of solid rain with temps in the low 50’s! The ground is saturated.

[jpsb]

Joe’s twitter account

[NELSON111]

Indeed. Check out the 10-day projected rainfall from the European model. It's catastrophic.

[Dave W]

Wow...

[CJ Wolf]

That looks real bad. I’m in a purple zone. Is Thursday the prediction date. If so good. Time enough to pray for it to go out to sea instead. Prayers up.

[NELSON111]

Yeah. Harvey-like rains over the mountains. It’s terrible. I sure hope the local media is preparing people for catastrophic river flooding

[Darnright]

>Gloucester County, Virginia here, and daughter lives in Virginia Beach. We’re very warily watching Florence.<

Shew, I’m in Southwest VA, and the possible 18 inch rainfall is giving me the willies!

[Ros42]

Yuck! I’m in mountains on VA/WVA border, West of Roanoke. This thing needs to turn! :-0

[Dave W]

I’m on the edge of this, but well aware the path will change for better or worse in the next few days. The flooding will absolutely be catastrophic. It appears mudslides down mountain slopes may be likely, too. Whole towns will need to evacuate.

[Free America52]

From 9/14 - 9/23 there is a huge annual beach music festival called SOS scheduled for North Myrtle Beach. 30,000 people normally attend. All of us are watching this storm closely, very likely none of us will be able to attend - this will also be an economic disaster for that area because of the lost hotel, restaurant, bar and shopping revenue that will be lost for local merchants.

[vetvetdoug]

I live in Tennessee now but have a history of being where I should not when a hurricane strikes. In August of 1959 we lived in Sumter, S.C., when Gracie made landfall as a Cat 4. We lived in a mobile home outside of Shaw AFB and it blew us over and we had to retreat to the hangar on base. We were then transferred to Yokota AFB, Japan, and lived in the “paddies” when a Typhoon Vera struck in September. It blew a tree through our house and we had to ride it out in one room of the home in 120mph+ winds and rain. Later that year we endured another “Super typhoon” but it wasn't as bad as Vera, being the worst super typhoon in recent Japanese history. In 1967 we were stationed in Del Rio, Texas when Beulah hit and traveled up the Rio Grande and flooded the barren desert there where I was privy to see trees loaded with rattlesnakes in the branches. It flooded the Rio Grande, San Felipe, and much of Del Rio. Since then I have no desire to live where a hurricane can strike even though the remnants of Rita, Katrina, Harvey and others have passed over me here as tropical depressions.

[politicianslie]

I’m on Ocracoke right now. Very unsettling

Tomorrow, or Tuesday at the latest, your post should read "Yesterday I was on Ocracoke."