Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
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Ditto with my father’s side of the family... we could be related
I'm in VA Beach...my Brother in law lives in Christiansburg and he texted me this morning to think about coming out to stay with him. I called him back and told him based on the last forecast I just saw he might want to come and stay at my place.
In 1963/64 during ASW operations with the USS Essex out near Bermuda, we (USS Jallao) were ordered to surface and ride out the hurricane on the surface.
With all the discussion about flooding, a life-saving storm item to have at your side is an axe. Far too many folks in NOLA reportedly died in the attic with no route to escape.
Isaac could be a real threat to the Texas coast coming into next week. It is low enough in the Caribbean sea to make it into the Gulf of Mexico. We flooded two years in a row in Houston.
Gotta make doubly sure all you/yours pull thru this one unscathed then, especially with that 300 year anniversary comin’ up !
The roots of our clan stepped ashore in Philadelphia about 20yrs after yours, and decided to stay awhile . . .
Thanks for this. Best news I’ve heard all year: “Helene will be the last of the African waves”.
The ships are safer at sea. All you do is steam into the wind and hold on for dear life.
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
North into VA? if so this is going to be horrible. We are expected to be at flood stage today, we are expected to get strait rain until Wednesday it’s been raining for 3 days straight now. I got a bad feeling about this.
It’s definitely been a wet summer. I have a creek and a pond on my property that has gotten close to crest. The biggest concern is the New River. We’re a few years past the last 100 year flood and overdue.
Prayers for them, and for all who are in Florence's path...
Excellent thank you. Just wanted to know where a central FR thread was located. FRegards NautiNurse
Planning to evacuate and will turn off/unplug all the appliances, but I don’t feel comfortable turning off the power as suggested here:
https://www9.nationalgridus.com/non_html/stormpreparedness.pdf
ie• Turn off gas heating and cooling systems, and electricity at the main box.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on
Hurricane Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Here’s some info about how it will stall
“However, the extremely strong upper-level ridge of high pressure to the north will act as an “atmospheric brick wall” and force Florence to slow down to a crawl in its attempt to move northward. This slow down will allow for an extended period of heavy rainfall in the region from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic and perhaps as far north as the Delmarva Peninsula, Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the period from the end of the week to the early part of next week. ”
bttt
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