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Hurricane Florence & Isaac
NHC/NOAA ^ | 9 September 2018 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse

September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.

The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.

Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.

Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.

Click on the images below to enlarge

Hurricane Florence Isaac
Florence Public Advisory Isaac Public Advisory
Florence Forecast Discussion Isaac Forecast Discussion
Buoy/Observations near Florence Buoy/Observations near Isaac

National Data Buoy Center

Local Weather:
Norfolk VA
Morehead City NC
Wilmington NC
Charleston SC
Jacksonville FL
San Juan PR



TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: florence; hurricane; hurricaneflorence; hurricanes; isaac; nautinurse; tropical; weather
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To: Rebelbase

Thanks


321 posted on 09/10/2018 1:18:54 PM PDT by Guenevere
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To: Rebelbase

Oh my


322 posted on 09/10/2018 1:20:11 PM PDT by Guenevere
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To: bert

Outer Banks Motel, Buxton NC - Oh, yeah that’s all going away. Good news is it’s all stick-built and can be rebuilt. No one really expects dune houses to last more than 30 years anyways.


323 posted on 09/10/2018 1:20:13 PM PDT by Justa
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To: CJ Wolf

More
12z transcribe. Best to my ability to trace/visualize through the frames.
Make of it what you will, we’re still rather early in the game w/more trending TC, but they sure did trend towards the east & clustered. Your “18z Hurricane Models” release will be the 12z runs themselves.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1039217233610911745


324 posted on 09/10/2018 1:40:46 PM PDT by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: tomkat

Have driven that stretch of I-40 many times. Looking over to the shoulder and seeing the fallen rock piles is very unsettling. Downright creepy.


325 posted on 09/10/2018 1:50:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: All

140 mph, 939 mbs


326 posted on 09/10/2018 1:55:19 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: All

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly
intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second
GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices
rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and
dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial
wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size
of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.

None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,
and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment,
and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours. Thus, the intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close
to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind
shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of
eyewall cycles. While the intensity forecast shows some weakening
of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to
grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind
threats. The bottom line is that there is high confidence that
Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane,
regardless of its exact intensity.

Florence has recently turned west-northwestward, still moving at 11
kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate in that direction over
the next day or two due to building mid-level ridge over the
northwestern Atlantic Ocean. By late Wednesday, a turn toward the
northwest is forecast due to the orientation of the Atlantic ridge,
along with a decrease in forward speed due to a new ridge building
over the Great Lakes. There is a new player in the forecast as
well, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding
some uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United
States. Perhaps it isn’t surprising that the model spread has
increased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall. The
official forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is
west of the model consensus. It is important not to focus on the
exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about
140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend
well away from the center.

The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance
missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special
0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to
additional upper-air stations across the U.S. are to collect extra
data for the numerical models.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 25.4N 61.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.6N 69.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 35.6N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1800Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND


327 posted on 09/10/2018 1:59:24 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: NautiNurse
I would not be surprised right now if the storm gets stronger with the next 24 hours, they may order the evacuation of Virginia Tech university in Blacksburg, VA, which could be very hard hit if the forecasts of Florence stalls over the Appalachians become reality.
328 posted on 09/10/2018 2:01:19 PM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's Economic Cure)
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To: janetjanet998

The new cone says bear Cat. 5 strength


329 posted on 09/10/2018 2:02:19 PM PDT by caww
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To: NautiNurse

With all the discussion about flooding, a life-saving storm item to have at your side is an axe. Far too many folks in NOLA reportedly died in the attic with no route to escape.


AXE BUMP!!!


330 posted on 09/10/2018 2:02:26 PM PDT by Freedom56v2 (#KATE'SWALL Build it Now)
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To: NautiNurse

Florence looks hugely impressive, ‘weather’ it becomes a Cat. 5 or not, it may be catastrophic. Hopefully people are preparing to getting things around to leave the coastline where they are evacuating.


331 posted on 09/10/2018 2:07:18 PM PDT by caww
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To: janetjanet998

Ayayay...


332 posted on 09/10/2018 2:07:27 PM PDT by cll (Serviam!)
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To: janetjanet998

More
I am going to take a LONG break. Back late evening.
I just see the gate open. Caribbean explosion amping the ridge through the Bahamas. Disturbances up north keeping the high at bay. Gateways open and perhaps even that curving track near NC showing now. Time will tell.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1039224791637454848


333 posted on 09/10/2018 2:15:50 PM PDT by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: janetjanet998

So Mike’s Page is dated .

http://spaghettimodels.com


334 posted on 09/10/2018 2:16:20 PM PDT by ncalburt (Gop DC Globalists out themselves ever)
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To: NautiNurse

A Cat 4 hurricane will shut down I-95 for a while. That means an interruption in trucking until it passes.

Best to do your grocery shopping and fill up your gas tanks before it hits.


335 posted on 09/10/2018 2:25:54 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 ("It rubs the rainbow on it's skin or it gets the diversity again!")
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To: bert

This has a shot at becoming a C5 BEFORE LANDFALL even. .The CDPS scale has it at stage 5

‘FORCE THIRTEEN’ LIVE.....Latest information on Hurricane Florence, Typhoon Mangkhut, Tropical Storm Isaac, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Olivia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydn60cg3uYg


336 posted on 09/10/2018 2:29:39 PM PDT by caww
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To: janetjanet998

Thanks for that NHC update, Janet.


337 posted on 09/10/2018 2:41:06 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: All

Hampton Roads evacuation orders just issued,


338 posted on 09/10/2018 2:43:15 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998; NautiNurse

This is a monster.

I’m just catching up with things and can’t believe how quickly she ramped up.

Man I pray everyone in the path takes this seriously.


339 posted on 09/10/2018 2:50:16 PM PDT by SE Mom (Screaming Eagle mom)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Florence growing in size & strength...

SUMMARY OF 0500 AM Advisory...
----------------------------------------------
Location...22.5N 78.8W
About 525 MI...SSE of Bermuda
About 1170 MI...ESE of Cape Fear NC
Maximum Sustained Winds...140 MPH
Present Movement...WNW at 13 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure...939 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 150 miles.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

340 posted on 09/10/2018 2:51:18 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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