Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
I love Duck and Corolla, the last two beach towns on the OBX before the VA border. I don’t want to ponder their getting really torn up.
That’s my feeling to - about it landing between N.C./Va. I just read a story about someone who had a full outdoor wedding planned in Annapolis Saturday. What a shame.
I been to both Duck and Corolla.
I grew up up in NJ, and spent much of my childhood in the summer at the shore.
When I went to OBX, I was absolutely amazed at the number of very expensive homes built on such a narrow strip of land. OBX May be lovely, but I have long thought that much of its residential development has been extremely unwise.
There are houses that have been there since the 1920’s and there are fairly new ones that have been destroyed. Luck of the draw really. The prettiest spots to build a house have sound to sea views though, and that’s where new inlets get cut unless it’s got a high dune field running the width of the island at that point. Want to see a pitiful example of some gorgeous Hatteras style beach cottages destroyed, look up Mirlo Beach on the north end of Rodanthe. Only a couple of those houses left now, very elaborate three and four story shingled houses. Used to love going through there. Now it’s just sad, numerous lesser houses survived but are actually on the beach now, high probability that they’ll not survive this storm. Great surfing there though.
The Weather Channel has been hyping the European model this morning. It shows the heavy rainfall staying mostly south of VA, and impacting SC much more than previously forecast.
As a resident of central VA, not too far away from the Blue Ridge, it is hard to determine what preparations to make. I have plenty of non perishable food, batteries and water. But I can’t imagine what would happen here if we got 3-4 ft of rain.
Best suggestion is to stay tuned into your local Emergency Management advisories.
Good advice! And have a NOAA weather radio handy. Along with a properly stocked go bag.
One other thought: Something like a Delorme gazetteer of your state, or a map with elevations, back roads listed. Plan routes ahead of time.
We’re as ready as we can be.
Beach cam at Holden Beach - a couple of miles east of out place. Not a good night time cam but great during daylight.
Pretty calm right now.
https://www.hobbsrealty.com/holden-beach-webcam
I live in the city of Charlottesville, but not that far away from a branch of a minor river. I live at quite an elevation from the river, but am still on the downward slope. Usually it is the other side of the river that gets the flooding.
I am in a holding pattern until tomorrow morning, and then I may make more plans.
My sister lives nearby but very close to the mountains. It is quite rugged (by East Coast standards) where she lives. I am more concerned about her at the moment.
We’ll keep you all in our prayers. :-)
Even living in the city and if you don’t have to bug, disasters can affect things like your city water and sewer. If it looks like it’s safer to shelter in place, you might want to make provisions for toileting and drinking just in case.
Have you had a chance to talk to your sis to see if she’s made any plans?
Nothing unusual on the Twiddy & Co. Realty Kitty Hawk beach cam either, maybe it’s been windy since the lens has sea spray on it but surf is unremarkable for OBX.
Northern OBX beaches in Currituck County including Duck, Corolla and the northernmost 4x4 beaches are under mandatory evacuation of visitors as of 7:00 AM today, though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKOtfXySLEk
If you’re in S Md, you’re in for some bad weather too!
If you’re in S MD, you’re in for some bad weather too. Hope you have a good working sump pump!
For many years, NWS has had near 100% accuracy with hurricane forecasts 24 hours put, and these days, the supercomputers are very reliable even 48 hours in advance.
I’d lay in “reservations” right now for three local “high spots”, at least 30 feet higher than surrounding terrain, better 50 feet, prep for departure, then make the call at the 48 hour point.
This presumes no more than a ten mile escape route, with a solid grid road network, to avoid evacuation jams.
If unable to satisfy those requirements, I’d consider leaving now.
I’ve seen 7 to 10 inches of rain in 8 hours cause 3 to 6 foot rushing floodwaters, across normally well drained Indiana flatlands. You may be looking at three times that much runoff.
Where are you in Indiana? I am in the Lafayette area.
Similar situation during the 1938 storm. Both bride and groom met the storm head on, and though wet, and perhaps less formal than planned, would not be denied.
They completed their nuptials during or just after the storm. As I recall, other folks trapped in the same hotel by floodwater, voluntarily vacated one of the nicer suites, for their honeymoon.
MustKnowHistory, I’m about 35 minutes due south of you, in an unincorporated rural area between Crawfordsville and Lebanon.
Beautiful webcam view!
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