A quarter of the population remaining to me is more persuasive that these people needed to stay for a variety of reasons. Animals. Their boats. They’ve been through countless storms there. This is not a place filled with people living off of welfare. They made the call, there is no real hospital there. They’re on their own and they know it. They’ve always been pretty much on their own, it’s an island, no bridges. Ferry service shuts down, they’re not getting anything off that island but perhaps themselves in private vessels. Easy for you to judge, sitting high and dry. It’s their call to make.
As was pointed out on one of the storm forums, over-reliance on experience in this case can kill. It’s something like a batter facing a pitcher he or she has been up against many times, only the pitcher has a brand new “strikeout” pitch developed over the offseason...
In this case we have a not particularly powerful (”category”) hurricane, but it DOES have the potential to generate an exceptional storm surge, and hang around. Shoot, it’s not likely, but it may even do a loop, and as of the time people on the island would have decided to stay, given the track uncertainty, they might face over time a nearly 360 deg. assault over 2-3 days. How many residents or even their deceased parents have faced that?
My understanding is that many structures on Okracoke Island are on stilts (pilings) and the town (most of the homes?) is roughly 0.75 - 1 mile behind the shoreline; typical elevation of the island is 3 feet.
A 15’ - 20’ storm surge is decidedly possible if the storm stalls in the wrong location. Let’s say we (they) end up with 15’ storm surge. What size waves can continue to propogate over 15’ deep water? Are there, at the very least, shelters that can withstand that for 2 days?