Well, my point is that sometimes experience or being too close to a situation can be misleading. Heck, I’ve had long experience lead me astray occasionally. Anyone with such & who is wise recognizes that. Experience is great, even absolutely essential in many situations, but, don’t let it be a straightjacket...
In this case, for one thing, 15’ storm surge with waves over that (my question is still “how big”?) is NOT worst case, and the collapse of the steering currents makes this storm less predictable than most. Has a similar scenario played out in this location, in the last generation or two? The serious weather watchers don’t seem to think so. (BTW, I am not myself making a prognostication - I am relying on others far more knowledgeable than I.)
Wind speed is down, but storm total energy is up, according to the NHC. The storm track has shifted slightly north. Make of that what you will.
I also note that there IS at least a point @ 27’ elevation on the island. Hopefully there is a strong shelter there.
In all this, I am not saying residents should be forced (as in “at gunpoint”) to leave. However, they MAY have made a fatal or very injurious mistake, based on their experience. Hopefully not!
“Prayers up” might not be a bad idea...
There are vegetated, larger inland dunes, unceremoniously called “hills” on that island. There is high ground. A 15 foot storm surge on Ocracoke appears very unlikely at present, however if such a thing were to occur, it’s not the entire island covered to a depth of 15 feet. That depth is the surge on the beach. The beach dune line serves as protection against this. Should there be a “blowout” in the beach dune line then the storm surge will rush through, but not at 15 feet. Storm surge can also affect the island on the sound side, but it’s not typically as severe. You’re talking about a place that floods in a thunderstorm. It’s not as if they don’t deal with high water day in and day out. Again, they made their decision, they’re staying. The consequences of their decision is theirs to bear, there will be no way off that island once the storm comes in until it passes. They know this.