“Nobody knows.”
As always it depends on turnout.
Right now both Trump and Obama are working to GOTV. In this first head to head I think Trump wins against the discredited Usurper.
Obama last event was attended by ~ 750 people!!! Laughable to my mind. The novelty of dark melanoma coupled with 8 years of failed policies has killed off popular draw...
I have read that it was invitation-only, which would explain that number.