Give them to me please. In PA there are 3.
No, there are no 10 in the midwest.
Seriously, when you actually go race by race, they ain’t there. We’ll flip 2 and maybe three to our side in MN.
The only reason we’ll lose ANY in PA is that our activist State Supreme Court got away with an unconstitutional rewrite of the district map.
LS, the polling isn’t capturing the on the ground properly, especially here in the upper midwest, just like it wasn’t in 16, just the other way. 2016 they completely missed the non traditional and disenfranchised MAGA voter... 2018... those voters are largely disengaged, and the Dems are going to crawl over broken glass to vote.
This combined with court forced redistricting in PA is going to cost 4-6 seats in PA alone IMHO.
And I fully expect easily another 4-6 across the rest of the upper midwest... possibly more.
PA-18 and OH-12 were not flukes... the GOP is blowing it historically, in the upper midwest especially. They are NOT remotely talking to anyone outside the traditional base, and the Dem’s are turning out at near Presidential year levels... Those Million or so voters that Trump got to show up that hadn’t before in PA aren’t going to show up for the midterms... The GOP isn’t giving them a reason to... they aren’t even trying to talk to the non traditional MAGA voter.
Look at nearly ALL the special elections, one consistent story is in nearly all of them... Near Presidential level turn outs for Dems, with midterm or lower turnout for R’s.... The only reason R’s haven’t lost more special elections is that because they have generally been held in districts where the GOP has such a large advantage that even with Presidential year level turnout for D’s, Mid Term Level turnout for R’s has been enough to hold them at bay.
That’s not going to be the case for the midterms. A lot of purple and even some pink districts are likely to flip. There is no doubt in my mind if the election were held today, Dem’s take the house.
The saving grace for the GOP, is the Dems themselves... the more ape poop crazy they act between now and the election the more likely those non traditional MAGA voters engage. However the GOP messaging being offered is not going to engage them... The Kavanaugh delay by the dems transparent games, certainly will help the GOP this fall.. and if the crazier side of their party openly runs on impeachment that will engage them as well....
But the GOP themselves have been engaging in electoral malpractice this cycle, particularly in the upper midwest. Trump showed them how to win, and they completely ignored the lesson.
Sadly, PA will re-elect WOLF by a wide margin, and send Casey back to the Senate comfortably.... Motivated D’s will turn out and flip a lot of districts in this part of the country... THe GOP thinks the same message that for 20+ years never got those non traditional MAGA voters to show up, is suddenly now going to make them show up... and it didn’t work for 20 years, and it sure won’t work now.
The only thing that is likely to save the GOP in this part of the country, is the D’s going absolutely insane between now and election day.. Kavanaugh fiasco is a likely good start, the longer it drags and crazier and dirtier the D’s act, the better it will be for the GOP... The GOP can hold the house, and if the Dems completely overplay the GOP could even wind up gaining seats, but the dynamic on the ground at this minute.... GOP lose the house... with a very large portion of their losses coming from the place that Trump targeted right out fo the gate in 16.
You can’t campaign in PA/MI/MN/OH/IA the same way you can in the deep south and expect a win.... I honestly don’t think the GOP want to win this fall... nothing I see, out of any of the entire GOP ecosphere, seems like they have any clue how to win in areas that aren’t heavily red to begin with...