I’m not at all convinced we’ll lose NJ-7.
In NJ-2 our candidate said some racial stuff that got him disavowed by the party. Poll out has him (Seth Grossman) down huge. Seems like a certain loss, along with 2 court-gerrymandered seats in PA (districts 5 and 6). Other than those 3 I’m not sure I’d write off any other seat. I think Comstock (VA) will probably lose but she certainly has a chance.
NRCC cancelled all remaining ads for Keith Rothfus in his race against Connor Lambchop. I think that’s a mistake. A politico article about that
Alleges the party also views Comstock, Paulsen, and Blum (who they haven’t been funding at all) as lost causes.
I’d call FL-27 50/50 at this point. Gun to my head and I’d say we hold it.
Some better news in IA, the lone rat in the delegation Loesbeck (District 2) is up only 6 in a new poll.
Certain R gain is PA 14 (which Lambchop is abandoning to run against Rothfus) and MN-1 and MN-8 are likely gains
Possible Gain I think is getting less attention than it should is PA-8 (Cartwright) might be the next best target after the 2 open seats in MN.
“Still flippable to us: McSally, “
McSallys seat is currently occupied by...McSally so we obviously can’t flip what we already have. ;)
I think that the open NH-01, NV-01 and NV-02 are all likelier pickups for us than Cartwright’s PA-08.
I agree that Lance will be reelected, but NJ-02 is gone; we lost that one when Grossman won the nomination.
And I think that we’ll hold FL-27. We’re running an attractive, popular Cuban-Americsn with outstanding communication skills in Spanish and English, and they’re running Donna Shalala.
Her house district which she is not running for.