So my estimate of 10 to 13 wasn't crazy ;-)
13 would be running the table and the longshot of longshots coming in Geoff Diehl over Liz Warren.
So LS am I out to lunch on that race or does Geoff Diehl have a decent shot like my gut is telling me? IMHO it is so parallel Stabenow here in MI, they are both arrogant, and think it is theirs, and they have real gladiators as their opponents, they won't even see it coming...
I’m not sure you’re out to lunch. Brown’s election proved that even Massachusetts citizens once a decade come to their senses.
This should cheer you guys up: This guy says that the Ds have max 24 seats they can get. But 12 of those are in play (That’s closer to what I have, only I give the Ds fewer than 20 in play).
Nevertheless, even by this guy’s assessment, Ds have to literally run the table on every single seat and not have another D-R flip somewhere.
https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1043873737433653253
ALSO: Another poll today from OH, with Renacci down just 2.6 points. That means in six weeks he’s basically made up a point a week. From “Ohio Wan”: “This guy finds a way to win. His first congressional race he defeated an entrenched Dem, then they redistricted him into another Dem district and he clobbered that guy too.” Rs, with a 300,000 voter reg advantage, should win this seat now. I increasingly think OH needs to be added to MO, MT, ND, IN, FL as pickups. Two recent polls show Heller holding a close lead. So AZ & NV appear close, but safe. Vukmire down only 2 in WI, but different situation than Renacci as Rs don’t have the voter reg advantage there. Still, not at all out of the question for a 7-point pickup as of today.