Posted on 10/02/2018 5:20:35 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
Senate Democrats up for reelection this year in deep-red states face a nightmare decision on how to handle Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Vulnerable Democrats are hoping Republicans will force him to withdraw his nomination, allowing them to avoid politically divisive votes.
The Democrats in the toughest position are Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.) and Joe Manchin (W.Va.).
Heitkamp and Manchin are undecided, and both are seeking another six-year term in states that Trump won by double digits in 2016. Donnelly is in much the same boat but said on Friday that he would vote ‘no’ on Kavanaugh.
All three voted for President Trump’s first Supreme Court pick, Neil Gorsuch, in 2017.
But this time around the partisan divide is much more bitter: The seat Kavanaugh has been tapped to fill will likely determine the balance of the court for years, and a confirmation vote is slated to take place a month before Election Day.
The Democratic base is much more fired up about Kavanaugh than it was about Gorsuch, who was confirmed in April 2017.
Liberal activists staged a sit-in Monday at Manchin’s campaign office in West Virginia in an effort to pressure him to vote against the nominee.
One Democratic senator, who requested anonymity, said there’s hopeful talk within the Senate Democratic caucus that Kavanaugh will drop out, even though he has adamantly vowed to stay.
The lawmaker said Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) is urging undecided centrist Democrats to wait until three undecided Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Jeff Flake (Ariz.) — make their positions known.
“He’s telling them, ‘Keep your powder dry.’ That means you don’t have to decide this -- wait and see how it plays out. There’s some speculation that Kavanaugh may not last,” the lawmaker said. “They always vow to stay right until they don’t.”
A second Democratic senator said there’s widespread disbelief in the caucus that Kavanaugh is holding on.
“I just had a conversation with a colleague who said they couldn’t believe he hasn’t dropped out yet,” the second lawmaker said Monday evening. “There was a time he could have done it gracefully and could have protected the Supreme Court.”
The lawmaker said whether Kavanaugh keeps fighting “depends on what else the FBI finds and where the votes are” but observed that “public opinion is trending against him after his testimony Thursday.”
A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill on Monday found that 37 percent of registered voters want their senators to give Kavanaugh’s nomination the thumbs up, while 44 percent want them to vote down Trump’s nominee.
Eighteen percent of respondents were undecided in the survey conducted from Sept. 29 to 30, two days after Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee to give testimony regarding her allegation that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her at a party in 1982 when they were both in high school.
One previously undecided Democrat, Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.), who is up for reelection in a state Trump won by 20 points, came out against Kavanaugh the day after the nominee’s angry rebuttal of Ford’s allegation.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), however, said he will force vulnerable Democrats to vote on the nominee.
“The time for endless delay and obstruction has come to a close,” he said on the floor Monday. “We’ll be voting this week.”
Kavanaugh vowed last week to stick it out, no matter what.
“I will not be intimidated into withdrawing from this process,” he declared in his opening statement to the Judiciary Committee.
A day after his testimony, Senate GOP leaders agreed to a request from Flake to delay a Senate floor vote on Kavanaugh to give the FBI time to investigate the allegations against him. That probe is expected to be completed later this week.
Heitkamp suggested at a campaign stop Friday in North Dakota that Trump and GOP leaders could defuse the situation by finding another nominee, who would have just enough time to be confirmed before Congress adjourns for the year.
“There’s a lot of lawyers in America who can sit on the court,” she said in Grand Forks, according to the Associated Press. “I think this idea that there’s only one person that can do this job, we all need to recalibrate.”
Senate aides see Heitkamp as less likely to support Kavanaugh than Manchin because she has a stronger record defending abortion rights. His confirmation could tip the court’s balance against Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision that established abortion rights nationwide.
Heitkamp may also feel more pressure to believe Ford’s allegation, which has exposed a significant gender divide among the electorate.
A recent USA Today/Ipsos Public Affairs Poll showed that 35 percent of women nationwide believe Ford’s accusation, while only 21 percent of men do. Women oppose him 43 percent to 23 percent, while men support him 40 percent to 36 percent.
Donnelly said last week, after Thursday’s Senate hearing, that he would “gladly welcome the opportunity to work with President Trump on a new nominee for this critically important position.”
Manchin has kept in close contact with undecided Republicans during the Kavanaugh debate.
He met with Collins, Murkowski and Flake in a Capitol Hill hideaway after Ford and Kavanaugh testified Thursday and, like them, didn’t give any hint afterward about how he would vote.
“We’re friends. We talk. There’s no decisions on anything. No one told me they made a decision, and we’re all still looking and talking and comparing,” Manchin told reporters after the meeting.
Donnelly said he would oppose Kavanaugh because he didn’t have enough information to assess the allegations against him, though he left himself a little bit of room to support the nominee if the FBI probe fails to turn up any corroborating evidence.
He cited the lack of a supplemental FBI investigation and his own inability “to get all information necessary” as reasons for his opposition.
Donnelly declined to answer a question Monday about whether he would be open to changing his position.
Trump has sent signals that he may now be of a mixed opinion about Kavanaugh.
On Friday he described Ford as “a very fine woman” and “very credible.”
The president on Monday said he was “surprised” at how vocal Kavanaugh “was about the fact that he likes beer and he’s had a little bit of difficulty.”
Trump noted that while he himself never drank, he saw a lot of people drinking in high school.
“They’d drink beer then go crazy,” he said in comments that appeared to undercut the nominee’s defense of his drinking habits.
But Trump also wants red-state Democrats to pay a political price if Kavanaugh goes down.
Trump chewed out McConnell 11 days ago in a private phone call from his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., for letting Kavanaugh’s nomination drag on, according to The New York Times.
The president later told associates that senators should have been forced to vote down Kavanaugh and suffer the political backlash, The Times reported.
But vulnerable Democrats wouldn’t be the only ones put in a tough spot with a floor vote. Collins, Flake and Murkowski, while not up for reelection this year, all have their political futures to consider if the Senate holds a confirmation vote on Kavanaugh.
Flake is retiring from Congress in early January. Collins is up for reelection in 2020, followed by Murkowski in 2022.
Republican candidates running against red-state Democrats have used Kavanaugh's nomination to go on the attack.
Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) has called Ford’s accusations “absurd” and criticized Democrats for orchestrating a campaign against the nominee.
“At some point Brett Kavanaugh deserves due process,” Cramer said in a radio interview. “You can’t just stage these allegations to delay the Supreme Court.”
Indiana businessman Mike Braun (R) has accused Donnelly of being “more concerned with standing with his liberal Democrat leaders than standing for Hoosiers.”
West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, who is running against Manchin, has accused his opponent of being “complicit in Senate Democrats’ disgraceful treatment of President Trump’s Supreme Court pick.”
The Senate Leadership Fund, whose president and CEO, Steven Law, is McConnell’s former chief of staff, highlighted a Republican poll Friday showing that 58 percent of West Virginians support confirming Kavanaugh, while 28 percent oppose him. The survey was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a GOP polling firm, for the Judicial Crisis Network, a group that is spending more than $1 million on ads targeting red-state Democrats in an effort to pressure them to support Kavanaugh.
Some Republicans say centrist Democrats will be tempted to seize on any potential failure by the FBI investigation as a reason to vote for Kavanaugh.
“It’s a really terrible vote for them,” said a senior GOP aide.
Manchin on Monday said a lot would depend on the findings of the FBI probe.
“This investigation’s going to tell a lot,” he said.
Saw a party-line Rat on fakebook ask “is this the hill the GOP wants to die on?”
The type of groundless attack, levied at the last moment of the hearing, better be worth fighting over. If you don’t the tactic will be used ad nauseum against EVERY GOP judicial nominee.
Commierats are fine with witchhunts, they don’t like the outing of their Commie comrades.
For them, it is a lose-lose scenario. If they vote yes, their own voters may abandon them. If they vote no, they motivate the Republicans to come out in droves against them. Either way, they lose - and I think the Republicans after this Kavanaugh stunt are more motivated than every before to come out in droves anyway...
-—He cited the lack of a supplemental FBI investigation and his own inability “to get all information necessary” as reasons for his opposition.-—
This is such a crock. There’s no “information’ to “get.” You have her story, and the affidavits of people she claimed were there who dispute her. That’s it.
So the fact that you can’t nail down an amorphous accusation full of holes, that’s a reason to vote against and not for?
Pull my other leg.
>>This is exactly why Trump wants the vote asap ... some of the polls in those red states show the dem senator behind ... make them all vote now ...
We need the vote taken NOW because early voting and mail in ballots are already starting...
Democrats and LIVs are voting before Squeaky Fraud’s story falls apart.
It’s not a nightmare scenario if they do what is right. And what their state’s voters want.
I hope that's the case. Either way, while we no longer have a reason to punish Arizona for electing McCain and Flake, I believe the President should definitely hammer Maine and Alaska to get their attention that the days of betrayal are over, and that hammering includes telling McConnell straight out that Collins and Murkowski are no longer running any committees or his pet projects in Kentucky are getting the boot as well.
so these people actually think the American people will put up with with the destruction of an innocent man? That might fly in places like LA and San Francisco, but it infuriates middle America.
He is not the one tarnishing the Supreme Court. It’s the democrats who attacked Bork, Thomas and now Kavanaugh.
Sleepy Joe needs to go!!!
It’s not just about defeating Kavanaugh, it’s about preventing a vote. Having to vote on this is certain Senator’s worst nightmare.
Have you punched a pinko socialist today?
Yup. Right now forcing the weasels to take a stand and vote is even more important than whether Kavanaugh gets on the court or not.
Re. “Is this the Hill we want to die on”
We aren’t the one’s dying on the Hill.
Don’t tell these reprobate losers but throw them out even if they vote for Judge Kavanaugh. What a bunch of duplicitous degenerates.
Manchin was the most likely to survive... but given this Kavanaugh stuff, even he’s a long shot, and formerly “SAFE” places for the Dems... such as MN, and WI may get into play..
Manchin will vote to confirm, unless of course his vote would seal the nomination.. then, and only then, he MAY be willing to take the bribe from the left and vote no.. but he knows his political career is OVER if he voters no... Kavanaugh is supported by 80% iin WV... He votes no, he knows he’s done... The ONLY way I can see Manchin even considering a no vote, would be if his yes vote would be the one to put it over the top....
Depending on the poll you look at Heitkamp dropped 6-8 points OVERNIGHT after she announce (foolishly I might ad) that she was a no.
Donnelly, announced NO, to only backpedal to a maybe in less than 48 hours.
if the Kavanaugh fiasco is a general 6-8 point swing, particularly in fly over country..... Dems are looking at a loss of possibly 10 seats or more in the Senate.
A 8 point swing puts places that weren’t even remotely in play, on the map.
I said going into this fall, that I expect the GOP to gain 6+ in the Senate, and if the wind blows just right, they could see double digit gains.
Thanks to this Kavanaugh fiasco, the winds are looking more and more like they may blow just right....
Any shot at retaking the house by the Dems, is GONE.... They will be luck at this point if they don’t lose seats there too. I’d say at least 50-50 odds republicans gain seats, and its ALL due to this Kavanaugh nonsense.... A completely self inflicted wound for the Dems.
Kavanaugh will be confirmed 52-55 votes... the Dems will be going crazy for at least a few weeks after, on full display for the world to see, going into late October...
They are toast.... The idea that somehow stopping Kavanaugh would A) happen and B) help them win the Senate was beyond a pipe dream.
First thing on the docket in January 2018, once the new Senate is seated, should be the censure of Pelosi for her behavior in this. Investigation and prosecution of everyone involved in illegal activities around this...
This part is horse hockey as well. Chief Justice Roberts is already licking his chops about the prospect of being that all important fifth voter on the court and filling the role of Kennedy, O'Connor and Lewis Powell before about being the most important person in America.
The Dems will want to shut down the investigation and vote and then blame Republicans for the ‘sham investigation.’
They spent the last year saying the FBI was great and ‘above politics’ and now they’ll bash this investigation as partisan b.s.
This lingering another week or two and it being the MAJOR issue of the election is good for Republicans.
Look for the investigation to be extended closer to midterms to “run down all leads” because it’s to our political advantage.
This also has taken the Russian ‘collusion’ talk off the front pages and made the entire mid-term on this issue and it’s a major winning issue for Republicans.
I say, continue the investigation another week or two. Expose the leftist liars and track down the leakers. We can take the Senate vote mid-October.
Oh, Joe will get out his huntin’ rifle a shoot a hole in the Assault Weapons Ban bill, again. All will be forgiven...NOT!
That's rich. The Dems have destroyed what was left of due process to try and keep Kavanaugh off the Supreme Court. The only destroyers look themselves in the mirror in the morning.
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