I think we agree more than we disagree, but I just don’t see any good news in the upper Midwest in the Senate. The GOP simply refuses to recognize you don’t run a campaign targeting just your base in states where your base is the historic minority.. particularly in a year where your opponents are as motivated as the D’s are this year.
The only bright spot I see is in MN.. now admittedly the Kavanaugh bounce isn’t in the polling in most of these states but to be down 11-18 in every race is flat out pathetic, and inexcusable.
I live in PA17 (formerly PA18) and the messaging (what little there is) is the same crap that I tried to tell people could and eventually did cost PA18. And nearly lost OH12.. the GOP messaging doesn’t hunt here... yet they still keep using it.. it’s pathetic and not going to win them anything.
And for the record, Lamb is going to cakewalk to re-election. I bet you most voters in this district couldn’t even name you the R oponent.
Casey is the weakest guy there could be, and Barletta isn’t even a footnote.. they are barely doing anything and what they are doing is TERRIBLe messaging if you actually want to and are trying to win. I would like to think OH should be a solid R win, but I don’t know if even Kavaanaugh bounce is going to close 10+ points, especially if they are running the same messaging in OH as they are in PA which I assume they are.
I do agree that the GOP will confirm, and Manchin was AlWAYS a yes, never any doubt about it... but he also knows he can’t be the yes that puts Kavanaugh over. So GOP must get 50 on therir own, once they do Manchin and a few others will vote yes... but if the GOP doesn’t put up 50 those Dems will stick to their parties line knowing it ends their political careers.
52-55 confirm votes at the end of the day. I full expect confirmation, but I am just saying if for some reason it doesn’t happen and I were Trump I would immediately announce my intention to resubmit him after the new senate is seated because I will not allow the sham, and repugnant, character assassination of a good man like Kavanaugh he rewarded.
Make every senator up for re election and their opponents have to state openly their intention for for voting on Kavanaugh... nationalize the election.. and force the left’s hand.
I have no problem making the midterms a referendum on the court... I don’t think for one minute the GOP will fail to confirm, but, if some weirdness happens, that is what I would do.
The idea the Dems thought this Kavanaugh circus ha any upside tells you how out of step they are. Trump isn’t going to back down just because you squeal... and the attempt to turn what at worst, if all true, was essentially some underage unwanted drunken groping into he’s a sexual predator, was ridiculous. Dems obviously thought it would sell with women, but other than the far left Kool aid drinkers I haven’t met a single woman of any political affiliation that isn’t angry as hell at the Dems. They see through this whole fiasco inately and know this harms real true victims and even if they are sympathetic to Ms Ford, they feel she’s a victim of the Dems as well.
Obviously they thought they had an upside to all this, but they were beyond stupid to think that.
Well, you’re wrong on the vote already. MurCowSki is a no already.
I think Kid Rock would have walked into that seat in MI.