The polls in PA for Gov/Sen/CD 17 are atrocious, yes. They are so bad than I am skeptical as to their accuracy but it seems certain we are well behind in all 3 races.
Michigan (Gov/Sen) as well, where the RINO douchebag Governor is not supporting the party.
While not particularly optimistic I’m not ready to write off the Senate races in OH and WI.
I Live in PA17 and I am telling you there is no reason to doubt the polling here or anywhere else in the upper Midwest. The GOP is electorally incompetent. They keep trying to run messaging and campaigns like they are in the south, where they have large registration advantages and simply need to pander to the base to win... calling your opponent names and saying they will just be a pawn for pelosi ir Schumer, is a dog that won’t hunt!
Here is the latest Barletta ad.
http://www.witf.org/news/2018/09/barletta-tries-to-wake-up-sleepy-senate-race-with-attack-ad.php
This ad will appeal to no one, other than the folks who already plan to vote no to Casey. Red meat for you base is fine, but it can’t be your entire campaign. This type of ad being a part of your messaging is fine, but when attacking the democrat is all you are offering and your entire campaign you are done... and Barletta has no cash, so this and other ads like it are all you see... when you see an ad at all.
You tell me, what person outside the Republican base is going to highly motivated to show up, let alone be enthusiastic to vote for you with that message??? Let alone someone who is a disenfranchised former multigenerational democrat? Or a cross over or general non traditional voter? What in that ad remotely tells you what Barletta is going to do for you?
This is the same story across the entire upper Midwest. The GOP messaging is completely wrong and it’s exactly the sort of campaign that caused both PA18 and OH12.. it doesn’t work, it hasn’t worked for 20+ years, yet you keep thinking it will. Stupid.
Casey should be on the ropes with just a half way competent run campaign, he has zero charisma, presence, or campaign ability. He literally campaigns by not being seen, because the more he is seen the lower he polls... yet the GOP continue being utterly incompetent. When you add the Kavanaugh situation to everything, there is zero excuse for Casey to win, yet he will handily.
The people you need to get to vote to win up here as a Republican are what used to be referred to as the blue dog democrats... now they call them working class whites. (Though they are not and never were exclusively white). You don’t have a registration advantage like you do in the south, so you can’t just talk to your base in statewide races and win. Democrats have the registration and organizational (other than WI) advantage.
Believe the Polls, the GOP is stillborn up here..