Very good news considering this one was drawn to be a guaranteed flip.
Posted on 10/03/2018 8:50:34 AM PDT by 11th_VA
West Long Branch, NJ – The contest in Pennsylvania’s newly drawn 1st Congressional District remains tight, but Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick has inched ahead of Democratic challenger Scott Wallace in the latest Monmouth University Poll of the race.
Most PA-01 voters hold a negative view of President Donald Trump and a plurality say they would like to see Democrats take control of Congress.
However, Fitzpatrick is able to counter these trends with a positive reputation among his constituents.
Fitzpatrick currently holds a 50% to 46% lead over Wallace among likely voters using Monmouth’s standard midterm turnout model. The race narrows to a virtual tie of 49% for Fitzpatrick and 48% for Wallace using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows Fitzpatrick with a larger 52% to 45% edge over Wallace.
The race was much closer in Monmouth’s June poll when Fitzpatrick was ahead by a single point in the standard model (48%-47%), Wallace was ahead by a single point in the Democratic surge model (48%-47%), and the race was tied in the low turnout model (48%-48%). All the leads in the current likely voter models are within the margin of error for the poll.
Fitzpatrick currently has the edge among both male (51% to 46%) and female (50% to 47%) voters. His lead with men is smaller than it was in June (57% to 38%), but he has reversed a significant deficit among women (40% to 56% for Wallace) since the summer.
White voters without a college degree back Fitzpatrick by a 53% to 44% margin, which is smaller than the 58% to 37% lead he held in June.
(Excerpt) Read more at monmouth.edu ...
It’s not that narrow, especially with a very motivated GOP base. He should win by 7-8%
I believe this is one of the seats the RATs need to retake the House.
I was polled for this on Saturday afternoon. Glad the results are looking good. I normally choose candidates based on their records. After watching the Kavanaugh lynching, I’m voting party line GOP. This current breed of Democrats must never be given any power.
I am in this district and there’s something smarmy and disgusting about Wallace - other than he’s a Dem. I will be voting for Fitzpatrick.
Despite the gerrymandering.
Brian and his brother Mike are tailored for the district. They both manage to be prolife and not upset militant women voters, and have endorsements from Sierra Club.
Scott Wallace drives me crazy that he has his blue haired daughter in all of his TV ads.
Unfortunately if we lose and the Democrats redistrict again in 2020 then I think the GOP is going to be in big trouble for a while. Barletta and Wagner seem to be toast.
I live in that district. I’m not a fan of Brian Fitzpatrick but his challenger “Wallace” is unbelievably radical-—one of the worst I have seen hence the reason Fitzpatrick should win this race. The rest of PA, I don’t know...I believe the Dems will pick up 3 seats or so....
ping
People ask how the dems think they’ll get away with their “not even pretending anymore” approach to their viscous attacks on Kavanaugh. My internal response: the PA supreme court shifted to democrat control and their first move was to seize power to redraw districts (something they’ve never been permitted to do) and then redrew them all to favor dems. And nobody said boo. More and more now they just don’t have to pretend to be fair or even close to the middle.
Please get out and vote! please this little district is important.
Monmouth, add 4-5 to the R.
Seriously, I think ANY non Trafalgar, Eutholythics, and PPD poll you have to add 2-5 points to the R.
And remember, both Sabato and Richard Baris say Trump is good for a 5-point bump for the R that lasts about a week.
Any chance of beating Lambie Pie? He only won by 500 votes last time, or did they redraw that too?
Yoder up 3 in KS. He’s another they thought a sure thing.
My KS guy tells me this means he’s really up 5.
PA5 and PA6 are the Dem’s almost guaranteed ‘gains’ after their scummy redistricting lawsuit. I am not being a pessimist saying that ... those districts are virtual D pickups.
There are two more districts that seem to be benefiting the Rats ... PA7 and PA17.
Connor Lamb (of PA18 special election fame earlier this year) is pulling his “I’m a Republican” act on Keith Rothfus. That race will more than likely be close (ignore the July poll on RCP).
I’m hoping we can limit House damage in PA to -2 seats. I’d prefer 0 or a gain of course, but, again, that’s highly unlikely.
We are going to need the President to campaign in PA. I also wish they’d give Barletta a chance ... let him attack Casey with 4 weeks left and see what happens ... I seriously think he has a genuine chance.
“He only won by 500 votes last time, or did they redraw that too?”
The whole state was redrawn thanks to a scummy lawsuit.
Lamb is trying for PA17 now and he seems to have a lead over Keith Rothfus. I am hoping this whole Dem fueled Kavanaugh debacle hurts Lamb’s chances. Lamb should have never won that PA18 special election, but crap like that happens (he ran as a frigging Republican for heaven’s sake!!!!!)
That I don’t know. Most people on the PAFOA forum from that area state it swings back and forth. I don’t know the newly redrawn map. However, I know people won’t be duped again by “anti Pelosi” lies.
What folks need to understand is the DEM base is turned up to 15...
While the GOP base and the independents were largely ho hum...
That all changed with the Kavanaugh fiasco... GOP BASE is now just as fully engaged, but more importantly, the independents and non traditional MAGA and Cross over voters are now engaged and enraged at Dems as well..
Do you know the D/R split there?
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