I expect that Schumer, Pelosi, and Feinstein will not be running in 2020.
Schumer runs in 2022, and would be 71 years old. I have my doubts that he’ll be the candidate, and that NY City mayor Bill de Blasio will be the replacement candidate. The GOP hasn’t been able to mount a real campaign in 25 years in NY state.
On Pelosi, she’s figured to win her 2018 house campaign, but is nearing 79 years old. She tends to win her House elections with 75-percent of the vote. Some folks are suggesting that the district has some frustration building up and that she will be barely getting 60-percent of the vote on this round. I suspect this is the last campaign and she’ll retire toward January of 2020, giving the governor a chance to appoint some Democratic insider to the seat, and help them in 2020’s election.
As for Feinstein? She’s up currently in the 2018 election at age 85. The Party told her a year ago that they would not support her and their big candidate was Kevin de Leon (state Democratic senator). Feinstein said ‘no’, and refused to step aside....running her own campaign. The primary? Because of the way that the state runs the system....the top two of all primaries will advance to the November election. Well, the GOP guy (James Bradley) was only able to get 8.3-percent of the total primary votes...with Feinstein and de Leon advancing. So it’s a Democrat versus Democrat election.
The gut feeling there is that Feinstein has some insider deal with the new Governor coming in (assuming that Gavin Newsom wins) and that she will retire within two years, with Newsom appointing himself into the position. All of this would be fine, but a month ago....a poll showed the GOP guy (John Cox) only five points behind Newsom. It’s possible that Cox might edge out Newsom, and this Feinstein plan is doomed. If she has health issues or passes away? Currently, there are no rules in California to prevent the Governor from appointing a GOP replacement or himself into the job. My guess is that if Cox does win, the state legislature will go to work immediately to write some law to say that it has to be a democratic replacement.