As early as December 2015, the BND, the German equivalent of MI6, took the highly unusual step of releasing a report about generational change in the Saudi leadership. It warned that power was being concentrated in the hands of Bin Salman, then the defence minister and Deputy Crown Prince. It also predicted he would attempt to succeed his father as king, and that he would use that platform to become a Saddam-style leader of the Arab world.
As a result, the Saudis, who have often been seen as a valuable pro-Western ally, would abandon past caution in favour of a destabilising regional role. Worse, the BND feared he was a gambler who would use military might to get his way.
This was an odd statement for an intelligence service to release, particularly given the strong commercial relationship between the two countries (Germany, like Britain, sells arms to Saudi Arabia). Unless, that is, the agency had access to clear and worrying evidence.
I have been told by a member of another Gulf ruling house that the BND got its hands on Bin Salman’s medical history after he was treated for epilepsy in Germany as a teenager – including psychiatric records that have led to such concern about his state of mind.
The BND was right about Bin Salman’s ambitions. With his 82-year-old father King Salman, suffering from Alzheimer’s, Bin Salman took over as Crown Prince last year.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6298711/No-wonder-call-Little-Saddam-MICHAEL-BURLEIGH-Saudi-Crown-Prince.html
The head of the German intelligence (BND) was sacked 2016
partly because he released a report in December 2015 about MbS. The assessment was not in line with the attitude of the Federal Government, which was interested in “constructive relations” with Riyadh.
Once again it raises the question about politicians that do not want to see the world as it is, but as they are conditioned to see it.