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[Great analysis.]

The maneuvering in China right now is the kind of thing you get in countries where oligarchy (rule by a group of self-appointed elders) devolves into absolute dictatorship. I’d say it’s akin to the transition from the Roman Republic (with the difference that Chinese plebes, unlike the Roman citizens of old, have no vote) into the Roman Empire. It’s basically the Senate (the Party’s senior people) vs Julius Caesar (Xi), although Xi is just a backroom schemer with nowhere near Caesar’s many accomplishments, and therefore, no particular prestige and therefore hold on loyalty among the major power-holders, except those he personally appointed.

I expect they are all getting ready for the big game internally, which may end up with Xi getting ousted in favor of one of his rivals or being on big fizzle. In this time period, the economy is the least of the Party’s worries. They are all trying to figure out who will win and looking to side with that winner. The problem for Xi is that he is attacking so many people that he could end up with all of them, despite their disparate and mutually antagonistic interests, lining up against him. Who will be Xi’s Brutus and Cassius? Or will Xi defeat his rivals in detail? Time will tell. Too bad they can’t all lose.