I saw John Fund on TV recently talking about a recent Washington Post poll. He broke down the number of people polled (300 and some) and the number of districts polled, and noted that that amounted to 39 people per district. "That's not polling," he said. "That's throwing darts at the wall."
Who is polled and how many is one factor that needs to be considered. Another is trends. During Maryland's gubernatorial race four years ago, Anthony Brown led pretty much every poll. But I kept telling people Larry Hogan would win, because I saw the way it was trending. Each poll had Brown with a slightly smaller lead than the last one.
Hogan won.
The trend line in virtually every poll, including those that lean left and tend to oversample Democrats, is moving in a Republican direction. Whether it's generic ballot, right track/wrong track, presidential approval, or the individual races, they all seem to be moving in a Republican direction.
That would indicate that there is no "blue wave" (except for Ichiro Suzuki's Japanese baseball team), and if you think the left is unhinged now, what happens if the "blue wave" doesn't occur, as polls are starting to indicate?
