As of today, I have Ds with a max of +15 in the House (19-4 flips from D-R) and a minimum of 8.
However, there are about 3 or 4 more potential flips out there for the Rs. I think we are pretty much locked a losing about 8 seats net (3 in NJ, 3 in PA, McSally, Blum, Trott, and Comstock). That assumes Tenney in NY pulls it out. So that’s 10-4=6 and I’m allowing for a flip in one of the CA seats and one other “random” loss that I’m not figuring.
I don’t see any way right now they get 27 flips (23 + 4 to offset the 4 D-R flips.)
Yep,
You don’t gain 4,5,6,7,8 Senate seats with wind to your back and lose 20 house seats. Past history shows they trend together. If we gain that many Senate seats there will be some D seats that flip to R that were not expected.