The theory has some plausibility, but I haven't seen enough supporting evidence to accept it outright.
The evidence is in Davis's own words in his April 3rd letter to Braxton Bragg:
“It is scarcely to be doubted that for political reasons the U.S. govt. will avoid making an attack so long as the hope of retaining the border states remains. There would be to us an advantage in so placing them that an attack by them would be a necessity, but when we are ready to relieve our territory and jurisdiction of the presence of a foreign garrison that advantage is overbalanced by other considerations. The case of Pensacola then is reduced [to] the more palpable elements of a military problem and your measures may without disturbing views be directed to the capture of Fort Pickens and the defence of the harbor. You will soon have I hope a force sufficient to occupy all the points necessary for that end. As many additional troops as may be required can be promptly furnished.” [Jefferson Davis to Braxton Bragg, 3 Apr 1861] Source
Davis saw the advantage in trying to create a situation where the Union would have to fire the first shot, but he thought that "other consdirations" outweighed the advantage of not having fired the first shot.
Davis doesn't go into what those "other considerations" that outweighed the advantage of not starting a war by firing the first shot were. Did the benefit of shooting first lie in solidifying support for the new government in the seceded states, or in rushing other slave states into secession? In any case, Davis wanted war for reasons of his own, and he was willing to start a one himself without any Yankee trickery.
We do know that Davis was getting letters and telegrams telling him that Virginia was ready to fall into the Confederate camp if only he would take bold action. What action could be more bold than starting a war?
Put Davis's letter to Bragg together with the letters and telegrams that Davis was receiving, and he really doesn't look like a victim of Lincoln's machinations. He was playing 3-D chess, maybe more so than Lincoln, but either he wasn't that good at it or his new country was at such a disadvantage that it didn't matter in the end.
More here.
You know, if we can believe Diogeneslamp’s story, this topic is tbe heart & soul of what brought him to the Lost Cause.
He says his African American roomate laughed in mockery of Jefferson Davis for getting “fooled” by tricky Abe Lincoln into starting war at Fort Sumter.
So Diogeneslamp tells us repeatedly that, no it was really Lincoln’s “war fleet” which fired the “first shots” and “tricked” poor Jefferson Davis into war.
But what if the real truth is Davis wasn’t “tricked” into anything, , but instead brilliantly started war knowing it would at least double the Confederacy and solidify its citizens support?
What if the one event which turned Diogeneslamp from a disinterested Unionist to a vigorous Lost Causer turns out he misunderstood it?