In fact, in 2000, I coined the term "Zogby Special Sauce".
Posted on 10/13/2018 5:27:37 AM PDT by Kevin in California
This week’s White House Report Card finds President Trump still riding high after the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and buoyed by reports that Democrats have not locked down control of the House.
Democratic pollster John Zogby, who gave the president a B+ in this week’s report card, said that it is “nearly impossible” for the Democrats to win the Senate. And worse, he said that winning the House remains “elusive” despite predictions that a “blue wave” will give the Democrats a nice majority cushion.
Never mind the polls.....Just get out and vote....and drag someone with you.
In fact, in 2000, I coined the term "Zogby Special Sauce".
Donald Trump is on the move making multiple appearances all over the map and the biased polls really don’t show good numbers for the Democrats.
They just aren’t ahead by 10 points like Hillary was, ha ha.
How can this be? Just yesterday it was reported that the Washington Post/ABC poll showed a majority of Americans were against Kavanaugh being on the Supreme Court.
Because the key Senate races are in Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, etc.
So national polls where Californians overwhelmingly say they oppose Kavanaugh or want the Democrats to win the Senate don’t really mean a whole lot, outside of a narrative-pushing headline.
To believe the Zog, or not to believe the Zog, that is the question.
——Just get out and vote——
There you have it.
We are learning that there is apparently a significant number of black voters deserting the democraat plantation. Will they vote for Republican candidates in local congressional races? Then there is the question of those potential voters remaining on the plantation. Will they be adequately motovated to actually go vote in congressional races?
What these black potential voters will actually do can not be polled.
While there are other important faactors, the current status of black votes is not determined with certainty and will be very important, perhaps telling.
Senate was NEVER in play... that is and was pure Dem/MSM daydreaming...
The house was, until Kavanaugh... post Kavaanaugh there is zero path to a 23+ seat gain in the house for the Dems to get control.
Not only that, but the more they talk about launching investigations into Kavaanaugh or impeachment of Trump or Kavanaugh, to pande to their radical base the worse and worse they are going to do.
Polls are STILL not, and probably never will fully show the full Kavanaugh effect... just like 16... because their Kavanaugh antics not only fully engaged and enraged the right, but also engaged and enraged the middle... and that middle is full of casual, irregular voters that will get filtered out as unlikely voters and not show up in the polls
You are right in your analysis here. We are only seeing the tip of the iceberg in the polls. Expect this week to be really bad for the Democrats as I expect some devastating news releases by the Patriots running things that will hurt them much worse. This is war.
If only......republicans knew what to do with the majority
I had a Toyota Celica years ago when ethanol was available as an option. I used it consistently and found I had NO PROBLEMS and the car ran better.
They run cars in Brazil on it all the time.
Zogby is an anti-Republican Arab who hates conservatives.
To Zog or not to Zog!! That is the question!!
Note: Gell-Mann Amnesia: the phenomenon of an expert believing news articles on topics outside of their field of expertise even after acknowledging that articles written in the same publication that are within the expert’s field of expertise are error ridden and full of misunderstanding.
After watching polls over years and years, you don’t have to be an expert to see that polls are manipulated to show DemonRATs ahead so as to depress Republican turnout, and then close to more accurate values close to the election to maintain the illusion of their being based on anything other than partisan advantage for the DemonRATs.
Dem’s keep reaching into their “Bag O’ Tricks” pulling out the same old crap time and again. Time to call it their “Bag O’ Turds”.
And that’s all the Dems have to fight with now is illusion. Their current efforts in the post-Kavanaugh political climate is like trying to stop a rampaging brigade of Abrams tanks by shooting tennis balls at them.
SPOILER ALERT!
Agreed. I've been tracking the Senate numbers pretty closely for the last 3 months. Breaking even has been their best hope, and that's long gone now. It's a likely +3 to +6 GOP gain at the moment (to 54-44-2 at least, and a 57-41-2 lead is in range)... and the first new Pubbie from NJ since 1956??
The house was, until Kavanaugh... post Kavaanaugh there is zero path to a 23+ seat gain in the house for the Dems to get control.
I wouldn't say "zero path" for the House, but... last month RCP had it as 206-189 "sure or likely or leaning" races, Dems ahead, with 40 "tossup" races (38 with a GOP incumbent). They needed only 12 of those 40 to take control, and it was looking like 15 or so were in range. A +23 is needed for taking control, and +26 to +28 was very possible.
Today, it is looking like 205-201, Dems, with only 29 "tossups" remaining (all 29 currently GOP). That's -1 Dem and +12 GOP in the last 4 weeks. The Dems are currently slated to flip 13 seats, and lose 3... and now need 13 more of those final 29 to also flip to grab control. Possible, but the window is clearly closing.
(The Dem's big victory will be in the Governor races. It is a huge 33-16 GOP lead today... but likely drops to a 26-24 lead in 24 days.)
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