Yes, Lambchop will win, but I must have read 100s of times that there are three districts in PA that will flip to the dems due to the redistricting. Everyone is certain of that and their reasoning seems solid. What are your thoughts?
Two seats in PA are CERTAIN GOP losses, with the horrifically unnecessary RENUMBERING this can get confusing,
They are PA-5 (old number PA-7) open seat of Republican Marty Meehan (who resigned when it came out he used taxpayer funds to settle a harassment lawsuit). Under the new lines it barely gave Trump a third of the vote, safe democrat.
The other is PA-6 (kept same number), the open seat of Republican Ryan Costello. It went for Obama in 2012 by just 3 points but swung to Hillary, she won it by over 9. It is NOT unwinnable for Republicans, however Costello dropped out after it was too late for new candidates to get in so the GOP nomination automatically went to the only other guy running, a nobody with no chance against a zillionaire democrat. Costello should be punched in his empty ballsack for leaving us in this position, but we’d probably have lost the seat anyway, I doubt Costello would have won since he’s a Trump-hater with no fire in the belly, but there are candidates who would have run who might have had a shot if he hadn’t exited the race in such an untimely fashion.
The Rothfus/Lambchop seat is PA 17 (Old number 12), it went Trump by about 2.5 points, a decline from the 4.5 points Romney won by (close in Pittsburgh suburbs swung D). Trump just endorsed Rothfus but all indications are that Lambchop will win (and if he had lost the special election in old PA-18 his position would hardly be any different so that was ultimately irrelevant) and many Republicans are writing it off. Rothfus beat a rat incumbent back in 2012, he’s no punk who’s never been in race before, but the slick liar Lambchop seems to be cleaning his clock on the campaign trail. I see it as D win but have not abandoned all hope.
Two other seats are in high danger
PA-7 (old number 15) the open seat of RINO Pig Charlie Dent, an Obama district that swung to Trump but still went Shillery by 1 point under the new lines. The rat seems to have the edge but it should be close.
PA-1 (old number 8), went from a narrow Trump/Romney seat to narrow SHilley/Obama seat in the new map. A new NY-Times/Siena poll is out showing the rat with a good lead but I’m skeptical and give the edge to our incumbent Ryan Fitzpatrick
Rats are also interested in PA-10 belonging to Scott Perry (not Mike Kelly, I get them confused) (Old # 4) a Trump +9 district, the old 4th was +20 Trump. There was a very close poll but I think it’s a dem fantasy.
Meanwhile we gain back PA 14 (old 18 that Lambchop took) as I mentioned, though likely this will be cancelled out by Lambchop winning the other seat.
Our chance at a pickup is PA-8 (old 17th). This one is very interesting. It was an Obama district that swung comfortably to Trump. The court left the partisan balance the same BUT some territory was changed around so rat incumbent Matt Cartwright is not really the incumbent for some voters in the district. Unlike almost every other race for against a rat incumbent we have a well funded challenger here, John Chrin. No polling that I know of has been released but analysts changed their rating to “lean D” (from likely d) back in June. Biggest under the radar race in the country maybe.
So the likelihood is there will be 3 or 4 more rats in the PA delegation then there were in Jan 2017 (before Lambchop), 2 or 3 more than there are now.
This NY slimes breakdown may be of interest to you
Correction, our Congressman in PA-1 is MIKE Fitzpatrick. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a quarterback.