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Critical flooding situation developing on Lake Travis and downstream (Austin TX)
many | me

Posted on 10/18/2018 7:15:41 AM PDT by janetjanet998

Background: Over the past 3 days widespread rains of 6-10 have fallen on the Colorado river watershed above Austin. You may have seen amazing video of the Llano River wiping out homes and bridges. The llano river hit its highest level since 1935 with 300,000 cfs of water flowing into the CO River above Lake Travis at one point, This combined with other runoff caused Lake Travis to rise over 30 feet in 2 days!!

The current level at Lake Travis is over 701 feet with many homes flooded already...5th highest of all time

Llona river has receded with only 15,000 CFs now. Above the mouth of the LLona river is lake Manfield which was holding back water until after the rivers feeding in Lake Travis recede

They opened a record 8 floodgates on that Dam and 60,000 cfs is now flowing out,,this combined with other runoff means 90,000 cfs is still flowing into Lake Travis

Lake Travis now has 4 floodgates opened with outflow of 28,000 cfs. The record number is 6 gates in 1957. They are planning to open up to another 4 gates today which will cause flooding problems downstream for a record of 8 gates opened!!

with 90,000 inflow in and only 28,000 out Lake Travis is still rising about a foot every 6 hours 701.43 right now with a rise of about a foot every 6 hours

LCRA has been behind the curve.. first saying Lake travis will peak 690-695 then 695-700

now 705 to 710ft which will be around the record of just over 710 feet

The top of the spillway over on the Dam at lake Travis is about 714 feet,

Forecast is More heavy rains for the next week

NWS DISCUSSION

WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE CONTINUED WET FORECAST THIS REMAINS A DANGEROUS SITUATION AS RAINFALL FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH AREA RIVERS. THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY ANNOUNCED THAT BY MID-DAY THURSDAY UP TO 8 FLOOD GATES AT MANSFIELD DAM COULD BE OPENED (4 ARE CURRENTLY RELEASING ABOUT 25,000 CFS DOWN THE COLORADO) TO MOVE SOME OF THE WATER FROM LAKE TRAVIS DOWN THE COLORADO. LAKE TRAVIS, AS OF 3AM IS AT JUST OVER 700 FEET MSL, THE 6TH HIGHEST THE LAKE HAS EVER BEEN (VISIT THE NWS AHPS PAGE AND SEARCH FOR MSDT2 TO VIEW THE OTHER PAST CRESTS). THE DEVILS RIVER IN VAL VERDE COUNTY, THE NUECES RIVER IN DIMMIT COUNTY, AND THE FRIO RIVER IN FRIO COUNTY ALL CONTINUE TO BE IN FLOOD THIS MORNING AS WELL.

WE URGE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING. ALSO, THOSE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER SHOULD MONITOR INFORMATION COMING FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY CONCERNING RELEASES FROM AREA LAKES AND TAKE NEEDED ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY ALONG THE COLORADO.

updated info https://floodstatus.lcra.org/#llevels


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: austin; flood; laketravis; texas; weather
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To: All

Now LCRA says there is no need to open more flood gates today..I assume outflows from lake Buchanan will decrease also

THIS MAY BE THE “LAKE OROVILLE MOMENT” , an important decision that may have consequences down the road

I don’t understand why they don’t at least open one more gate now( another 8,000 cfs) to give them a buffer later


10 a.m. update: The Lower Colorado River Authority says it will not need to open additional floodgates at Mansfield Dam to release water from a swollen Lake Travis on Thursday.

“It is still possible we will need to open up to four additional floodgates over the next few days,” the agency that manages the Highland Lakes said in a statement.


21 posted on 10/18/2018 8:56:56 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

S#!thole East is getting an over due cleaning.


22 posted on 10/18/2018 8:57:11 AM PDT by fella ("As it was before Noah so shall it be again,")
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To: janetjanet998

Lake level forecast: Lake Travis is expected to rise to 705 to 710 feet msl by Friday, Oct. 19. Given current forecasts, LCRA will not need to open additional floodgates at Mansfield Dam today, Thursday, Oct, 18. However, the additional rain forecast over the next several days could cause a significant increase in storm runoff, which may result in the need to open up to four additional floodgates in the coming days.


23 posted on 10/18/2018 8:58:41 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: fella

Hasn’t been cleaned out since Buffalo Hump passed trough there in 1840.


24 posted on 10/18/2018 9:00:15 AM PDT by fella ("As it was before Noah so shall it be again,")
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To: janetjanet998

Thanks for the thread. Should Lake Travis breach....God forbid....where would be the likeliest affected areas?

Thanks in advance to anybody who is more knowledgeable of the geography than I am.


25 posted on 10/18/2018 9:03:26 AM PDT by prairiebreeze (Don't be afraid to see what you see. -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: janetjanet998

They haven’t followed their protocols for years. The first sentence on their website states the dams were built for flood control. Over the past few years, they’ve raised the lake levels and kept them high for recreational use. People around Kingsland are blaming the LCRA for the deaths and property damage. They should have started letting water out long before the floods came. Back in the day, when real human beings monitored the waters, we didn’t have so many floods and certainly not nearly as bad. Today, nimrods sit in their cubicles in Austin, two hours away from the beginning of the lake chain, and oblivious to the actual conditions.

I’ve lived on LBJ since the 60s. I know first hand their incompetence. In 97, I called them because they were washing us out by dumping Buchanan water into an already flooding Llano. They told me my eyes were lying and that the lake was constant. I kept telling them how rapidly it was rising. Nope, their gauges weren’t seeing any rise. They can’t wrap their pea brains around that a gauge on the Buchanan Dam that two miles across might show a different reading if a gauge were put out in front of my part of the river which is a 100 yards across. Try shoving millions of gallons through a narrow area and see what happens.

And don’t get me started on the years and years and untold dollars spend on Buchanan Dam’s repairs. They’ve been “repairing” for longer than it took to built the thing. That’s the dirty secret. They can’t allow it to fill to capacity or it might break.


26 posted on 10/18/2018 9:07:15 AM PDT by bgill (CDC site, "We don't know. how people are infected with Ebola.")
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To: prairiebreeze

The spillway is on TOP of the DAM (ie holes where water comes out at 714 feet)..the height of the DAM is taller...The spillway has never been used but just because it does doesn’t mean the Dam will fail, it means water will rush downstream out of control,,

but to answer your question if it does fail......

According to a study in the early 2000’s at least 35,000 people would be at risk if dams fail in Travis County. That report also says if Mansfield Dam fails, then other dams would likely fail as well causing flooding well into downtown Austin.

https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/homeowners-nearby-are-looking-at-mansfield-dam-a-little-more-wearily


27 posted on 10/18/2018 9:08:49 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: Robert A Cook PE

Normally dry creeks are running strong.

Medina Lake is full again!


28 posted on 10/18/2018 9:09:11 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd
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To: janetjanet998

It’s going to be real difficult for me to care any less than I already do about Antifa Austin being flooded out ...


29 posted on 10/18/2018 9:10:48 AM PDT by BlueLancer (It is terrible to contemplate how few politicians are hanged. (G.K. Chesterton))
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To: rktman; hadaclueonce

Make that the Californica imports/invaders should move elsewhere.


30 posted on 10/18/2018 9:16:30 AM PDT by bgill (CDC site, "We don't know. how people are infected with Ebola.")
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To: bgill

Like I said before LCRA has been idiotic, if you listened to them on Tuesday they said the lake will top out 690-695 feet today(48 hours)....all while the lake was in the 680’s and rising at rates of 1.5 feet per hour with 300,000 cfs still pouring in

Buchanan topped out at 1119.2 and has now fallen to now 1118.7.....with outflows exceeding inflows..it was 1112-1113 before this event.

I don’t get it..get as much water out of the system now and open another gate if not two on Travis NOW


31 posted on 10/18/2018 9:17:50 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

This thread is just begging for some SRV....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtLwuPCUEdg


32 posted on 10/18/2018 9:19:30 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: janetjanet998

The LCRA is ALWAYS behind the curve. I’m on LBJ and did they lower the lake level before that 39+ wall of water hit?

No.

Years ago, the water level here was a foot lower. These days, the LCRA is all about recreation instead of water management. Gotta keep the water levels high for those jet skiers and wake boats that tear up docks. It’s more important to keep the tourists happy than worry about the safety of the tax paying residents.


33 posted on 10/18/2018 9:24:22 AM PDT by bgill (CDC site, "We don't know. how people are infected with Ebola.")
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To: Robert A Cook PE

Deport the illegals and there wouldn’t be any more worries about the aquifer.


34 posted on 10/18/2018 9:29:32 AM PDT by bgill (CDC site, "We don't know. how people are infected with Ebola.")
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To: All

Lake Travis now 101.76 up a third of a foot in the past twp hours since I started the thread

here is a comment on twitter that sums it up

@KVUE THe LCRA would rather flood the houses on lake travis than increase the flow rate down stream a little. I’m so disappointed by this political decision.


35 posted on 10/18/2018 9:38:27 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: prairiebreeze
The Austin news channels have been all up in arms for days about one of their many bike trails flooding. They've had half their reporters out there all week. It's earth shattering and huge manatees. This morning the reporter for abc was warning viewers how dangerous it was as the camera was pointed down at a puddle. Then a jogger runs by ruining his live shot.

Then there was this. It's funny, but notice the invisible flood at Stevie's feet. Austin is more worried about a bike trail than people's houses. Libs have a different set of priorities.


36 posted on 10/18/2018 9:40:08 AM PDT by bgill (CDC site, "We don't know. how people are infected with Ebola.")
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To: janetjanet998

another twitter comment..seems like many like me are questioning LCRA

@LCRA I’m so disappointed that you can’t open even one or 2 flood gates to reduce the rise of lake travis. My basement will flood at 710 above MSL and I have to move everything. This is a huge risk if it keeps raining which is forecast.


37 posted on 10/18/2018 9:44:58 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: bgill

About different priorities...true, that.


38 posted on 10/18/2018 9:48:58 AM PDT by prairiebreeze (Don't be afraid to see what you see. -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: janetjanet998

https://floodstatus.lcra.org/ “Oct 18 2018 10:56AM Releases from Buchanan Dam are being passed through the Inks Dam spillway.”

Hey, gotta make the public think the LCRA is actively doing something. Snort, the river gets high enough then Mother Nature and gravity takes over. The LCRA doesn’t have to do a thing.


39 posted on 10/18/2018 9:54:20 AM PDT by bgill (CDC site, "We don't know. how people are infected with Ebola.")
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To: janetjanet998

We keep getting emergency messages from the city of Bur-nette. The old saying is “It’s Burnet, durn it. Can’t you learn it?” Most annoying they can’t even pronounce it correctly. Just like reporters are mispronouncing Llano as Yanno and the floods from the San Sa-Baaa River.

They also say the Braw-zos River. I call and call to correct them but they keep on with their Californica pronunciations.


40 posted on 10/18/2018 10:07:34 AM PDT by bgill (CDC site, "We don't know. how people are infected with Ebola.")
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