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This is why I think the situation will reach critical mass soon

1) Lake Buchanan was at 1013 feet before the deluge......they were holding back water at ZERO cfs as it was filling up to the 1018 flood level until the LLANO river crest eased(300,000 cfs peak)....the lake peaked at 1019.2 feet and is 1018.25 feet now with 60,000 bfs outflow and out 30,000 in) they can allow the lake to get much higher in fear of other issues
in other words no more or Little storage from Buchanan

2) The Pedernales river is the west arm of lake travis and extends west..no Dams on this river so it all flows into the Lake..at peak vales the other day it was probably dumping 20-30,000 Cfs into the lake

3) according to data the peak inflow from the dams above was 315,000 now lets add the 30,000 from the west river and another 15,000 for the shoreline area and lets say a total of 360,000 total inflow to the lake at peak flow.....

so last storm was 360,000 inflow to the lake from the lower watershed and ZERO from the upper upper from Rainfall runoff with ZERO outflow from travis

net inflow to travis and amazing 360,000 bfs at peak

now lets assume this Rainfall event is only 1/3 that as the last say 100,000 cfs max inflow from the rain.....there is 30,000 out flow now but that is being canceled out by the now Buchanan dam releases

Now I under that inflows at certain spots won’t peak out at the same time and will have peaks and valleys and I also understand it takes more water raise the lake at a foot at higher levels then at lower levels but I think you all see my concern

8pm update

another LSRA forecast failure: it has been obvious since last night and especially today that the lake is NOT going to be In the 705-710 ft level by Friday (tomorrow) the media of course has been using the doom and gloom 710 ft Friday since then

another LCRA issue is Lake Buchanan is still falling almost down to the 1018 level with LCRA previuosly implied where releases will stop. well its 1018.22 down a foot and falling rather fast since outflows are still 60K inflow no w only 32 or so

yet it still says thisLast Update: Oct 18 2018 4:38PM

Lake level forecast: The level of Lake Buchanan is expected to remain within a range of 1,018 to 1,019 feet msl in the next 24 hours.

well it will be below 1018 soon in a few hours so the question is why aren’t they closing some gates now? Do they want to lower the lake more and keep extra storage later?

also light to moderate rain now covers the west central portion of the basin