Posted on 10/19/2018 4:01:51 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
Could Republicans do the unthinkable on November 6th and keep a majority in the House? Politico’s Rachel Bade calls it “unlikely,” but not impossible. Bade hears from Republicans and “even a few Democrats” that the political winds have shifted enough this month that it might result in a slight GOP majority once all the votes have been counted.
....Just about every poll predicts it won’t happen: Suburban voters are too fed up with Donald Trump, and Democrats too awash in cash, for Nancy Pelosi’s party not to seize the House on Nov. 6.
And yet House Republicans — and privately, even a few Democrats — say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has given GOP voters a badly needed enthusiasm boost, they argue, and several races seen as unwinnable just weeks ago are suddenly back within reach for Republicans.
Democrats, meanwhile, have retreated from several battlegrounds once considered prime targets. They’ve also deserted a Democratic-controlled open seat in Minnesota, creating a new, rare pickup opportunity for Republicans in a cycle where they’ve consistently been on defense.....
“Unlikely” seems right if one watches the polling. At FiveThirtyEight, the forecast gives the GOP a 1-in-6 chance of holding the majority, which might be slightly better than unlikely, but not by a lot. Thanks to the disparity between urban centers and everywhere else, Democrats have an advantage in the overall popular vote but Republicans have one in distribution. By their calculation, Democrats have to win the national popular vote by 5.5 points in order to win 218 or more seats in the House.
So what does the polling tell us? Right now, the RCP average Democratic lead is 7.6%. It’s close enough that it the MoE could pull it below the line needed for the gavel. Plus, as Bade notes, Democrats are noticing that the GOP are rebounding in specific races they thought they had locked up:
...Democrats are also taking money from the race to unseat GOP Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, who, Republicans say, has a healthy lead. That came just days after Democrats pulled out of Hispanic-populated districts represented by Rep. David Valadao in central California and Rep. Will Hurd along the Texas border. And they’ve withdrawn $800,000 in planned ads from Rep. Vern Buchanan’s Florida district, where the Democratic challenger, David Shapiro, trails the incumbent....
They may be running into trouble in Minnesota, where Pete Stauber looks set to flip Rick Nolan’s Democratic seat in the Iron Range. Republicans might also be in trouble in MN-02 where incumbent Jason Lewis has trailed in some polls, and where Democrats win more state legislative seats of late, so it could be a trade. But a trade doesn’t help Democrats take over the House majority, either.
The wild card in this is the Kavanaugh Effect. How many Republican voters who were complacent without Donald Trump on the ballot have now been galvanized by that debacle? How many has Trump himself galvanized in his barnstorming over the last few weeks? The polling mainly missed thesurge of marginally attached voters that turned up in 2016, and may be missing it again now. Add that to the massive fundraising and organizing advantage the RNC has over the DNC, and we could be in for a surprise on Election Night.
Not that I’d bet that way, but it’s definitely possible. And maybe even somewhere north of unlikely.
Actually 528 has been quite accurate - they gave Trump a 35% chance of winning the election, which was higher than any other poll or media source. If polls and predictions were always right there would be no upsets in sports, elections or anything else.
538 went through a major lookback after failing to predict Trump’s victory in the 2016 Primary. They realized that they had ignored the data and instead listened to their colleague pundits. Will not be making that mistake again.
EXACYLY
I’m more worried about the Florida governor’s race. Desantis has run a totally incompetent campaign. His most visible ad has been “I’ll always go to bat for Florida”. What the **ck does that even mean? At the current rate he WILL lose to Gillium and the 3rd largest state in the US will become “California Commie” and the liberal, socialist machine will swing Florida to the Democrat in 2020. Very sad!
The close races need to close with a strong reminder of what Nancy Pelosi means in leadership. They crashed the economy and the healthcare isystem last time in power. And now they are radicalized.
Allowing this situation to be about Trump and not the contrast in results of the gop Congress vs pelosi’s radical ideas is a lost opportunity.
Watch as the night unfolds and they increase the odds of the GOP holding the House and then try to explain away their forecast.
I won’t be shocked if we hold the House. Not one bit.
People hate attacks. And that’s all we’re seeing from Dems. Strange, isn’t it, that no polling outfit has run a survey asking voters if the daily shows of violence is causing them to rethink how they’ll vote? At least none I’ve seen.
The answer is obvious: pollsters know the answer already - it’s bad for Democrats. Thus, no poll.
Dems will not win the House. Gain seats, sure, but gain majority? No. Nor will Dems gain ground in the Senate.
All these “experts” in the political media do is create a loop of self-reinforced fulfilling prophecy. Democracts will win the House, they write, because.... Democrats will win the House. They can’t give you policy reasons - economy, border security, consumer confidence, etc.
In logic, this is known as a tautology. We saw lots of tautology in 2016. This muidterm has the familiar smelll of victory to me.
I will fall in with the “I don’t have a clue” crowd and fast and pray that God’s will be done.
No one is forgetting anything, we will flip some Democrat seats as well.
They are making the same mistake again. And 528 is way overrated. They gave Trump a 20% chance to win.
The GOP ticket will pull Desantis over the finish line.
Unfortunately, Paul Ryan is still Speaker. He's been as effective as our Attorney General.
Analyzing a POTUS election is one thing but 469 races in Senate and the House is another thing entirely. Similar to the difference between picking the Derby winner and picking the 7th race winners in every track in the US on Derby day.
Avoid damp floors in bare feet.
Wear rubber-gloves
Stay away from metal poles sticking up in the air
Keep your furniture grounded.
In other words, get ready to be shocked
I read a couple of articles last year by statisticians that claimed polls are, at this point useless. It is taking the pollsters something like 3000 to 5000 calls to get one person to answer the questions. With that type of nonparticipation rate, it is nearly impossible to balance a survey.
The sites like RCP that average several polls over a period time can fail to detect rapid movement by voters on issues because the older samples hide the amount of change. Averaging polls over time can, at best tell you the opinion of voters from dates “X” to “Y” but the problem is, only “Y” matters. It simply does not matter who someone planned to vote for two-weeks before an election. It only matters who they voted for on election day.
Lastly, polls are balanced based on previous elections. If the turn out model is wrong then the poll is wrong. There is evidence that the historical turn out model is wrong this time.
The records of early voting released so far indicate that Republican voter participation numbers are up; sometimes by as much as 7% and despite the media hype that democrat numbers are flat or down.
I may be wrong but this election looks to be a barn-burner. Maybe a city-block burner actually because I think the Democrats are, at best going to tread water in the house and lose 7 seats in the Senate and will instruct their thugs to riot.
Here is the question: If the Republicans pick up 4-7 Senate seats will they really loose seats or just break even in the house?
We will see.
“They’re somewhat chastened by their 2016 experience, but cling to faith in the new, improved Democrat vote manufactury.”
That’s why I do not vote until the actual election day. I don’t want them to have a hint of how many votes they need to manufacture to win.
That would be a miracle...
“The GOP ticket will pull Desantis over the finish line.”
I sure hope so, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has been a terrible campaigner; maybe it’s his staff, but maybe it is him. I voted for DeSantis in the primary and I can tell you one thing...Putnam would have had this race wrapped up already...he would have a 5-6 point lead otherwise known as a “Florida Landslide”
me too
.
No, it will be the reasonable expectation.
Jobs vs. mobs. A winning strategy.
The CBS Evening News (it was on in the bar) says that the Democrats have a lock on 226 House seats and that President Trump is very unpopular.
They're experts, you know.
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